4 Kazakh Regions Likely to See Water Shortages in 2026

Four regions in Kazakhstan may face water shortages in 2026, a product of the lingering effects of the 2025 regional drought, according to Kazakh Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Nurzhan Nurzhigitov.

As reported by Vlast.kz, during a government meeting this week Nurzhigitov warned that low water levels are expected in the Syr Darya, Shu, and Talas river basins, affecting three Kazakh regions – Kyzylorda, Turkestan, and Zhambyl. Almaty region, home to Kazakhstan’s largest city and also the site of Kazakhstan’s planned first nuclear power plant, may also be at risk of water shortages this year. 

This is not Nurzhigitov’s first warning. In January, he sounded the alarm, noting that the water volume in southern Kazakhstan’s reservoirs was 1.9 billion cubic meters lower than in January 2025.

“This is an objective reality, driven by declining autumn-winter precipitation, reduced glacial runoff, and the overall impact of climate change. These factors are long-term and require systemic adaptation,” Nurzhigitov said at the time.

The situation is much the same now. In his recent comments, Nurzhigitov said that reservoir levels were 1.6 billion cubic meters lower than during the same period last year.

The Shu and Talas River basins, Nurzhigitov said, “are characterized by persistently low water availability throughout the growing season.” The Kirov reservoir is 78 percent full and the Orto-Tokoy reservoir is 83 percent full. Elsewhere the problem is less severe, Nurzhigitov said, with inland reservoirs much more stable, but Kazakhstan has concerns about reservoirs nearby in Kyrgyzstan.

In 2025, Central Asia witnessed a drought. As Penny Beames, Erin Menzies Pluer, and Zach Goodwin explained in an article for The Diplomat earlier this year, “2025 was one of the region’s driest years in decades,” with precipitation at about 80 percent of the 2000-2020 average.

While precipitation upstream is variable year-to-year and subject to the vicissitudes of climate change, demand in Central Asia for water continues to grow, driven by extreme interest in water-intensive industries like mining, nuclear power, data centers, and AI.

Back in January, Nurzhigitov noted that Kazakh authorities were “conducting outreach to agricultural producers on water conservation and the transition to less water-intensive crops.” He also said that the government would adjust the structure of crop areas, taking into account the water situation.

Government officials seldom discuss Kazakhstan’s water situation in the same breath as its economic and energy ambitions, let alone the matter of food security, as if the spheres do not intersect. But they do, and therein lies the great challenge for Central Asia writ large as drier winters bleed into scorching summers.