Europe Must Prepare to Defend Itself Without US, Sven Biscop Says
In an interview with Kyiv Post, Sven Biscop warns that a growing rupture between Europe and the US could leave Ukraine facing the most immediate and serious consequences.
Kyiv Post
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The visible tension between the US and several European leaders at the recent G7 in France is not just a passing disagreement, according to Prof. Dr. Sven Biscop, a Belgian political strategist and director of the Europe in the World program at the Egmont Institute.
In an interview with Kyiv Post, he said the West is facing a much deeper transatlantic rupture – one that could have damaging consequences for Ukraine.
“For the first time since the Second World War, we have an American government that sees Europe as a rival rather than as an ally, and that is really new,” Biscop said.
A historic rupture
He noted that some parts of current US foreign policy are not entirely new.
“There are many continuities in Trump’s foreign policy, for example prioritizing Asia over Europe, and that came already from the Obama administration. But the fact that for ideological reasons he sees Europe as a rival and actively tries to undermine European integration, that is a rupture,” Biscop said.
He argued that this shift reflects a fundamentally different world view, especially when it comes to Russia and the idea of spheres of influence.
“He also has this logic of spheres of influence that he outlined in his December 25 National Security Strategy, in which he said that America is entitled to a sphere of influence, but in his view also Russia. And that’s very dangerous, of course, because the only place where Russia can create a sphere of influence is at the expense of Ukraine and the rest of Europe,” Biscop said.
Russian internet users are griping that an ongoing Kremlin campaign to suppress the app Telegram for “national security reasons” certainly isn’t stopping the Ukrainian robot planes.
Ukraine feels the danger first
For Europe, the consequences are serious. For Ukraine, Biscop said, they are already being felt.
“I think the immediate danger is for Ukraine, sadly,” he said.
Biscop pointed to moves by Trump to pursue negotiations without properly consulting either Kyiv or European allies, saying this shows a willingness to make major concessions at Ukraine’s expense.
“We have already seen when Trump negotiated the 28-point plan behind Ukraine’s back without informing any European ally either, that he is actually willing to make enormous concessions at Ukraine’s expense because for him peace in Ukraine is not an end in itself. It is an instrument to allow him to normalize relations with Russia, and I think that remains his goal,” Biscop said.
Put bluntly, he added: “I think Trump is closer to Putin than to Europe.”
Europe must carry more of the burden
That change in Washington, Biscop argued, is forcing Europe to rethink its own security role. He said the US has made clear that while it will remain central to NATO’s nuclear deterrence, Europe will increasingly be expected to take charge of conventional defense.
“The Americans have also been very clear now that in the NATO context they continue to provide nuclear deterrence, but conventional deterrence and defense Europeans will have to organize themselves to provide the first line of defense with much more limited American support than before,” he said.
Biscop said Europe now has to spend more on defense and build a stronger European pillar within NATO, one capable of acting on its own if needed.
A more realistic view of Ukraine’s future
On Ukraine’s future, Biscop said European leaders have become more realistic about what success might now mean. For a long time, he said, many in Europe focused only on the ideal scenario of total victory and full liberation of occupied territory.
Now, many European leaders seem to see a ceasefire along the current front line as the least bad option, provided it does not legally recognize Russian territorial gains.
“I think European leaders have concluded that the least bad option is a ceasefire along the current front line, without legally recognizing new borders, while stopping the killing and putting the sovereign Ukraine that survives on the road toward EU membership,” he said.
Biscop said that if US support weakens further, Europe must leave no doubt that Ukraine’s future is in the EU.
“That’s why Europe needs to continue to send a strong message that there is only one possible future for Ukraine, that is as a fully fledged member state of the European Union, which means that the other European member states can never and will never abandon Ukraine because its future is as a fellow member,” he said.
Iran war adds pressure
Biscop also warned that the conflict involving Iran is already affecting Ukraine by diverting US attention, time, and military resources.
“The Iran war of course has already created an enormous diversion of attention, of time and energy away from the war against Ukraine. It has also used up American stocks of ammunition,” he said.
Even so, he said he does not believe Europe will abandon Ukraine if a wider Middle East crisis deepens. But support could become more difficult and more expensive.
“I don’t think Europeans will falter in their determination to stick by Ukraine. It will just become even more difficult and even more costly,” he said.
NATO’s new reality
As for NATO, Biscop said more European leaders are beginning to accept that they must prepare for a future in which Europe may have to defend itself without the US fighting alongside it.
“I think more and more Europe’s political and military leadership is coming to the conclusion that Europe also has to prepare for a scenario in which it fights its next war by itself. The preferred scenario obviously remains that the next war would be fought side by side by Europeans and Americans, but it is also prudent planning to have a plan B,” he said.
For Biscop, that is Europe’s new reality: the alliance may endure, but the assumptions that shaped it for decades no longer do.
