Iran War: Questions and Challenges for Ukraine and Its Friends
What does the latest major conflict on the world stage mean for Ukraine, its struggle against Russian aggression, and its supporters?
Kyiv Post
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Ukraine’s predicament and its significance for the free world are once again being literally placed on the back burner.
American and Israeli missiles and warplanes are striking Iranian military targets, while Ukraine’s air defense systems are being depleted as they repel the relentless aerial attacks by Iran’s ally, Russia.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has pointed out the contradiction directly: the attacks on Iran may be justified – he called them “the right decision” because Tehran supplies weapons to Russia and represses its own population – but a prolonged campaign will consume the air defense systems that Ukraine desperately needs. The war in the Middle East, he says, will make Ukraine a “forgotten war,” with allies distracted by other crises while Russia continues its assault.
Is what is happening a good or bad thing for Ukraine and the free world?
While leaders in Europe have differing opinions about the legality and purpose of the US-Israeli offensive, most Ukrainians, like most Europeans, it seems, support the Iranian people’s desire to overthrow Tehran’s despotic theocracy. And, of course, Ukrainians also hope to see a Russian ally removed.
Beyond this, the issue is therefore not whether the strikes on Iran are legally justified. For Ukrainians and many Europeans and other democratic peoples, the linked question is what they show about the real order of Donald Trump’s priorities.
The Ukrainians will be joined in their boycott of the ceremony by the Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, Latvia and Poland.
Is it Iran? Ukraine? Europe, Cuba? Mexico, Venezuela? Russia? China? Or is it domestic challenges – the Epstein records, falling ratings, approaching midterms – that are taking precedence? And is Iran really a distraction?
The disrupted supply chains
Iran has sent thousands of Shahed drones to Ukraine since 2022, and these drones have been systematically attacking Ukrainian infrastructure. This supply line is in danger of being cut off because Iranian military production facilities are now being destroyed.
But Russia has already increased its own production. It still has enough missiles and production capacity for the time being to keep putting pressure on Ukraine without help from Iran.
So, the supply chain problem is less important than Western leaders want it to be.
On the other hand, the real danger to Ukraine is that the West won’t be able to help Kyiv as much as it needs to.
Air defense is in short supply. Ukraine won’t get any of the Patriot batteries, NASAMS systems, or interceptor missiles that have been sent to the Middle East or Israel. Zelensky has said many times that moving air defense systems to the Middle East makes Ukraine more open to Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure.
Western industrial capacity, already stretched thin, now has to meet demands across several areas at once. There is also a limit to the amount of political attention. Congressional debates, news coverage, and policy focus are now scattered amid crises, which is hurting support for Ukraine by competing priorities rather than planned abandonment.
Europe’s strategic problem
The Iran war makes things even worse for Europe, which is already in a tough spot. The continent has put a lot of money and effort into dealing with the Ukraine-Russian war, including moving away from Russian energy, increasing defense spending, and changing how it protects itself.
Now it has to deal with instability in two important areas simultaneously. Energy markets, which had just stabilized after cutting off Russian supplies, are now facing new problems from the Middle East. Even though Europe is less dependent on Middle Eastern oil, price shocks around the world will affect economies already stretched thin by helping Ukraine and taking in refugees.
The real limit is the US military’s capacity and role. European security has been underpinned by the strength of the American military and its ability to deter threats. But every carrier strike group sent to the Persian Gulf and every fighter squadron sent to the Middle East takes away from NATO’s eastern flank and Ukraine. The US is spread out over many areas. Because of this and Trump’s general attitude, Europe needs to accept that its traditional security guarantor can’t only focus on its eastern flank even if it still wanted to.
The Kremlin in limbo
In the short term, the Iran war seems good for Moscow. Rising oil prices, driven by instability in the Middle East, help the state budget, allowing Moscow to continue the war. When Western attention is divided, it puts less pressure on Russia, allowing it to consolidate its territorial gains and pursue a strategy of attrition.
But these short-term benefits come with high costs. The destruction of Islamic Iran’s military and economic capacity reduces the significance of an important ally. Moscow’s de facto abandonment of its partner is also humiliating.
The nuclear shadow
The Iran war could lead to nuclear proliferation in the region, which would change global security in a big way. A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could make not only Iran, if its present regime survives, but also other countries want nuclear weapons as a way to protect their independence.
It could change the security situation in the Middle East and probably lead to nuclear programs in Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
Europe – France, the UK, and now Germany and Poland also, realize that nuclear weapons are the best way to guarantee safety.
Reading the US’s priorities
No matter what Trump says, the US can’t do it all: conduct a war in the Middle East, stop China in the Pacific, and support Ukraine with air defense systems. Something has to give, and the evidence points to Ukraine.
The obvious truth here – reaffirmed, rather than revealed by the Iran war – is that Ukraine is not a priority for the White House. Its struggle and survival are not seen by it as the major threat to European security and world order.
Israel and Gaza
While Ukrainians understandably prioritize their concerns, they are not alone in feeling that, for now, they have fallen off the radar screen.
Israel’s war with Iran has also diverted attention from the plight of the Palestinian people in Gaza. If Israel and its US ally succeed in destroying the Islamic regime in Tehran, what will happen to the Palestinians and their supporters? Will there be further destruction, expulsion, and occupation?
This is a serious dilemma for those who support the Iranian people’s desire to rid themselves of their Islamist dictatorship and are unwilling to apply double standards to people in conflict in Israel.
While Israel’s right to self-defense against terrorism is not in question, the genocidal nature of its response, effectively condoned by the Trump administration, has been widely condemned internationally.
Ukraine will also need to be consistent in addressing these issues, regardless of any inherent bias in favor of Israel, and should remember that Israel could have done much more to support Ukraine recently, rather than effectively maintaining a middle course between Ukraine and Russia.
Staying focused amid chaos
Significant structural threats to European unity exist regarding Ukraine. Energy markets exert varying pressures on each other. Competing demands, such as providing air defense for Ukraine, maintaining a naval presence in the Mediterranean, and securing borders against the flow of refugees and migrants, strain defense budgets.
People are growing frustrated as they face the costs of multiple crises simultaneously: Ukrainian refugees, rising energy prices, and inflation driven partly by sanctions and partly by instability in the Middle East.
However, Europe will likely maintain the coalition, despite the challenges, because it now understands that the alternative is worse. If Russia prevails in Ukraine, it will signal that authoritarian aggression is acceptable and permanently alter European security.
Ukraine has already tested NATO’s credibility, and the stakes demand unity despite structural pressures that favor fragmentation.
But the main goal of stopping Russia from winning in Ukraine should still hold because European leaders know that splitting up now will lead to worse problems later, when they are alone and weaker.
Therefore, the Iran war serves as a test of Europe’s ability to remain focused and united during challenging times.
And for Ukrainians, the big question is how Ukraine should deal with the new complicating factors that have arisen, right now and in the aftermath.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
