Israel’s security establishment is closely monitoring the pilgrimage to Tehran, which included leaders and senior officials from terrorist organizations who attended the funeral of Ali Khamenei.
Security officials told Walla that they view parts of the ceremony as an effort to normalize and validate the status of Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father. Mojtaba was seriously wounded in the targeted killing of his father and was reportedly afraid to attend the funeral. Many other leaders also chose not to attend and instead sent representatives.
The security establishment says Iran is gradually restoring internet service because of economic pressure. Still, Iranian authorities have long proven their ability to control the street and shape public discourse.
Iran is also working around the clock to restore its military capabilities and rehabilitate its economy, which remains under severe sanctions. As of this writing, there has been no change in the severe underlying condition of Iran’s economy, which has become the main source of pressure on the regime.
Despite US President Donald Trump’s statements that Iran will not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon, Israel has remained outside the talks and is not directly or indirectly involved in the negotiations. As a result, the Israeli security establishment is deeply concerned that it could be caught off guard by decisions made by Washington and Tehran.
IDF preparing for the possibility that fighting with Iran will resume
The IDF continues to prepare for a scenario in which fighting with Iran resumes, or in which concrete intelligence reveals threats to the Israeli home front that would require immediate military action.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir reviews and approves the defensive and offensive operational plan every week, while Military Intelligence continues to expand the target bank and validate existing targets.
The IDF believes that the war exacted a heavy price from Iran. However, Israeli officials also believe that the regime and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are not close to collapse and have already begun the rehabilitation process.
Mojtaba Khamenei's intense desire for revenge
A senior security establishment official said the working assumption is that Mojtaba Khamenei, whose father quite literally “died in his hands,” is filled with an intense desire for revenge. That desire, the official said, stems not only from the humiliation the Iranian regime suffered at the hands of the IDF, but also from his father’s elimination.
Fueling that desire for revenge, according to the official, is Revolutionary Guards commander Ahmad Vahidi.
Meanwhile, a senior security establishment official said that if Hezbollah attacks the Israeli home front, the IDF will respond by striking targets in Beirut’s Dahiyeh district.