ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12, 2026

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

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ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

  • Ukrainian forces have struck 90 Russian oil tankers in the Sea of Azov since July 6 as part of their intensified campaign to isolate occupied Crimea.
  • Ukraine’s successful long- and intermediate-range strike campaigns continue to fuel Russian milblogger concerns about Russia’s inadequate air defense capabilities and the Kremlin’s poor decision-making that have left Russia and occupied Ukraine vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes.
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced forthcoming changes to the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers, including the reassignment of the current prime minister, Yulia Svyrydenko.
  • Russian forces launched nine Kh-59/69 guided cruise missiles, four Kh-31 anti-radar missiles, and 115 drones against Ukraine overnight.
  • Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

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