Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- A leaked European intelligence report highlights Russian President Vladimir Putin’s increasing concern over his personal safety and the safety of his senior officials.
- ISW has not observed independent evidence to support other aspects of the leaked intelligence report about Putin’s fears of a coup attempt in Russia.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appointed Colonel General Alexander Chayko to the position of commander-in-chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) after recent domestic criticisms of Russian air defense and air campaign failures.
- Russian forces first infiltrated into the outskirts of Kostyantynivka in late October 2025 but have yet to achieve meaningful operational progress in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declared a unilateral ceasefire on the night of May 5 to 6 in response to Russian rhetoric regarding a May 9 “Victory Day” ceasefire, urging Russian forces to reciprocate.
- Swedish authorities seized a Russian shadow fleet oil tanker on May 3.
- Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces made confirmed advances on the frontline.
- Russian forces launched two Iskander-M ballistic missiles, five Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 234 drones toward Ukraine during the day on May 3, and 155 drones overnight.
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