The recent killings of a top Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) commander and three lieutenants in northeast Nigeria has left the group in organizational disarray amid ongoing battles with Nigerian forces and rival terror group Boko Haram.
Troops with Nigeria’s Operation Hadin Kai and U.S. Africa Command, or AFRICOM, killed top commander Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, also known as Abu-Mainok, on May 16 in Borno State. Also killed were Mallam Haruna, Abu Huraira and Ba Yuram. The four terrorists were key operational, logistical and security operatives, Zagazola Makama, a counterinsurgency and security expert, wrote on X.
Nigeria’s Chief of Defense Intelligence, Lt. Gen. Emmanuel Undiandeye, said ongoing military operations have fractured the leadership structures of both ISWAP and Boko Haram, and have largely dismantled the groups’ supply chains and other support networks.
“Our forces have assaulted, decimated and decapitated them to the extent that their logistics chains, arms and ammunition couriers, as well as other support networks, have been largely dismantled,” Undiandeye said in a report by Nigeria’s Vanguard newspaper.
According to Undiandey, Nigeria’s security situation has improved considerably due to enhanced operational capabilities, intelligence gathering and the deployment of technology in collaboration with allied nations, including France, the United Kingdom and the U.S.
The losses led to the departure and defections of ISWAP fighters as the group faced increased attacks from Boko Haram, which has recently gained significant territory from ISWAP in the Lake Chad region.
“Every successful defection not only reduces ISWAP’s manpower but also creates more opportunities for intelligence collection on the group’s structure, supply chains, finances, leadership disputes, and operational methods,” analyst Malik Samuel wrote for Pan-African research organization Good Governance Africa. “Former fighters have historically provided valuable information that contributed to arrests, interdictions, and targeted operations against insurgent networks.”
Analysts say ISWAP’s recent losses have also exacerbated long-simmering tensions among foreign ISWAP fighters and Nigerian recruits. According to Samuel, many foreign fighters were initially welcomed into ISWAP due in part to their extensive combat experience, but tension grew over time as these fighters viewed themselves as indispensable and thought they could exert greater influence over the group.
“In many cases, the group’s leadership remains cautious about handing sensitive positions to outsiders, particularly where issues of trust, ethnicity, language, clan dynamics, or operational security are involved,” Samuel wrote. “Former members describe this as a source of friction between some foreign fighters and sections of the local leadership, especially among individuals who feel their sacrifices and expertise are not being adequately recognized and rewarded.”
Conversely, some disgruntled foreign fighters have established relationships with locals who feel marginalized by ISWAP’s leadership.
“Former members suggest these alliances have deepened internal distrust and factionalism within the group,” Samuel wrote.
While ISWAP’s losses are significant, analyst Joshua Biem and Ndu Nwokolo, managing partner of the Nigeria-based research firm Nextier, warned that the group is notoriously adaptable.
“ISWAP has demonstrated institutional resilience across a decade of targeted operations, leadership losses, and interjihadist conflict with JAS [Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad],” as Boko Haram in known locally, they wrote in a recent study. “The conditions that sustain the insurgency remain largely unchanged.
Al-Minuki’s successor has yet to be named. Some analysts believed the most likely prospect was Baba Shuwa, a senior commander commonly known as Ba Shuwa. However, Makama reported in early June that Shuwa declined to accept a leadership role reportedly proposed by the IS central command in Iraq. According to Nigeria-based news agency HumAngle, other contenders are Abu Salem, a battlefield commander known for his combat bravery and religious authority, and Bana Chingori, who was regarded as Ba Shuwa’s closest deputy.
“The succession contest may accelerate interjihadist violence and retaliatory civilian targeting as both groups compete for territorial legitimacy and recruit from communities displaced by renewed conflict,” Biem and Nwokolo wrote.
Ongoing military operations against ISWAP compound its leadership dilemma. Makama reported on June 21 that Operation Hadin Kai troops arrested a suspected ISWAP informant during a patrol in Borno State.
“The arrest is part of ongoing intelligence-driven operations by Operation Hadin Kai to disrupt terrorist networks, identify collaborators and deny insurgent groups access to information and logistical support within communities across the North-East,” Makama wrote on X.
The same day, Makama reported that the Nigerian Army arrested three suspected female ISWAP collaborators at a Borno State displacement camp. They were allegedly linked to facilitating movements and communication between civilians and terrorists.
