There is a dark joke making the rounds in the cafés and bazaars of Iran at the moment about how much Qatar must have paid US President Donald Trump to sign his new agreement with Tehran.
Nobody genuinely believes Doha is writing checks to the White House, but the gallows humor among many Iranians who oppose the Islamic Republic, shows the disbelief that after decades of sponsoring terrorism, threatening its neighbors, crushing dissent, and pursuing a nuclear program – and having been pounded by the US and Israeli militaries for six weeks, plus a further economic blockade – the regime appears poised to emerge from its latest confrontation with greater breathing room than before.
The Trump administration insists the opposite is true.
Speaking to The New York Times this past week, US Vice President JD Vance defended the memorandum of understanding signed between Washington and Tehran and dismissed criticism from Israeli ministers.
When Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir warned that the agreement risks empowering the regime, Vance responded with a challenge: “What is your exact proposal?”
It is a fair question. But it is also one that many Israelis would argue has an obvious answer.
Israelis watched Iran build network of terror proxies across region
For decades, Israel has watched Iran build a regional network of proxies stretching from Lebanon and Syria to Iraq, Yemen, and Gaza. Israelis have lived through the missile attacks, suicide bombings, rocket barrages, and proxy wars that followed.
They have seen international agreements come and go, sanctions imposed and lifted, redlines drawn and erased.
In short, Israelis know what they are talking about. And if Vance doesn’t listen to Israelis, perhaps voices from inside Iran also know what they are talking about.
“The general mood here is one of deep discouragement and depression,” a Tehran resident told The Jerusalem Post this past week. “Every new statement from Trump or Vance seems to create another wave of anger and a powerful sense of betrayal.”
That is why Vance’s dismissal of what he called a “weird panic” over the agreement has been met with such skepticism. The concern is not that Iran will suddenly become more dangerous tomorrow morning. The concern is that the agreement gives the regime the two resources it has always valued above all else: time and money.
Time allows the regime to breathe and regroup, rebuild and survive.
Money allows it to continue financing its proxies, especially Hezbollah, with Lebanon close to exploding over the continuous conflict in the south of the country.
Republican Sen. Tom Cotton voiced similar concerns this past week, warning that lifting sanctions on Iranian oil exports could provide Tehran with as much as $200 million every day.
As Cotton noted, the Islamic Republic is unlikely to spend those funds on schools, hospitals, or public services.
Even those who support diplomacy should acknowledge this reality. Every dollar flowing into the regime strengthens the institutions that keep it alive. The chants of “Death to Israel” and “Death to America” will not suddenly disappear, and a new, peaceful partner will appear on the international scene.
Trump losing out on credit for weakening Iranian regime
The irony is that Trump deserved credit for weakening Iran. His maximum pressure campaign inflicted enormous economic damage on the regime, and Israeli security officials this past week pointed to imminent total economic collapse in Iran. That will not happen now.
Which makes the timing of this agreement all the more perplexing.
The Post’s Amichai Stein wrote this past week about the concerns about economic disruption, rising fuel prices, and the political consequences of a prolonged conflict playing a major role in Washington’s decision-making.
Trump himself acknowledged this past week that he wanted to avoid an economic catastrophe.
That may be understandable from a domestic political perspective with midterms on the horizon.
But history suggests that when dealing with the Islamic Republic, short-term economic calculations often create long-term strategic problems.
For many Israelis, and increasingly for many Iranians who oppose their own regime, what they see is an extremist government that has survived another crisis and may soon receive exactly what it needs most.
