China’s population is projected to fall by about 60 million over the next decade, threatening economic activity in wealthier coastal provinces and putting growing pressure on the public pension system, according to recent analyst reports.
Research firm Rhodium Group estimated that the world’s second-most populous country, after India, could lose the equivalent of nearly France’s entire population over the coming 10 years.
In a nation of 1.41 billion people, a decline of this scale would weigh on labour productivity, consumption and social security, including in richer coastal provinces that have powered much of China’s growth over the past four decades.
“The country’s most developed provinces are seeing falling populations, which will impact overall consumption and the future productivity of the labour force,” wrote Allen Feng, associate director with Rhodium Group’s China markets research team and the report’s author.
The demographic decline is already feeding through into the economy, as smaller families and an ageing population place greater strain on elderly care. Fiscal subsidies to social security funds hit a record 2.9 trillion yuan (US$425 billion) last year, equivalent to 10.1 per cent of general budget spending, “and appears set to rise in the future”, Feng wrote.
“The impact on household consumption is obvious, but the larger problem for Beijing may be the hit to social security funds,” he added, noting that demographic pressures were also likely to contribute to weakening credit and lower interest rates.
One of the main drivers of the trend is a collapse in births. The 7.92 million babies born in China in 2025 marked a record low, down 17 per cent from a year earlier, while the country’s population shrank for a fourth straight year. Analysts have cited higher living costs and shifting social attitudes as reasons.
