Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranThere has been increasing chatter that Washington and Tehran are nearing an agreement that might wind down the war launched by the United States and Israel on Feb. 28. The truce that took effect seven weeks ago has been a prickly affair, with occasional fire at Gulf states and tit-for-tats at sea — including in recent days, which have seen U.S. forces strike missile sites and vessels in southern Iran as well as shooting down Iranian drones, and reported Iranian missiles launched at Kuwait.What the two sides and a bevy of intermediaries are hashing out is still in flux, with leaks and whispers giving the contours of a 60-day memorandum of understanding, but not yet its granularities. Reports suggest that an agreement would include short-term steps such as the resumption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the end to the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, while buying some time for negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program and economic relief for Iranians. Another tricky issue is Israel’s ongoing war in Lebanon, as Iran demands ending the war as part of the negotiations.If the United States and Iran agree to a deal in some approximation of those terms, it would not be the “unconditional surrender” previously demanded by U.S. President Donald Trump. Such a deal would disappoint supporters of Operation Epic Fury, who sought regime change, and would come too late for those who opposed the strikes all along. Still, it would bring some relief to markets and many regional players keen to be out of the crossfire, while setting up subsequent talks that could prove even more bedeviling. Secretary of State Marco Rubio answers questions
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