Air Force sortie rate three times higher in first four days than in June war, while sparse Iranian fire still triggers nationwide alerts and economic disruption
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Air Force sortie rate three times higher in first four days than in June war, while sparse Iranian fire still triggers nationwide alerts and economic disruption
05:49 AM • March 08 2026 IST
In the natural world, the difference between a lion cub and a full-grown lion reflects a gap in maturity and strength. A similar contrast can be drawn when comparing the economic cost of Israel's June 2025 campaign against Iran, Operation Rising Lion, with the current campaign, Operation Roaring Lion.
Less than a week after the United States and Israel launched their war against Iran, Operation Roaring Lion appears more wasteful in its use of offensive munitions than the 2025 campaign. According to the IDF Spokesperson, as of Tuesday evening the IDF had launched approximately 4,000 munitions – roughly the same number used during the entire 12-day 2025 Israel-Iran War.
This means the rate at which Israeli aircraft are dropping bombs in the current operation is three times higher than during the summer campaign. This formed the backdrop for the situation assessment held Tuesday by Defense Ministry Director General Amir Baram with the CEOs of the major defense industry companies: Elbit Systems, Israel Aerospace Industries, Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and Tomer.
Production of offensive and defensive ammunition in Israel has been expanded since June 2025, after the defense establishment assessed that a second round of war with Iran was likely in the near future. Despite this increase, Baram discussed with defense industry leaders the need to expand ammunition production to the maximum possible level.
The most expensive items in the munitions sector are interceptors used by air defense systems. While bombs dropped by Israeli Air Force aircraft cost around $20,000 each, an interceptor for the Arrow 2 or Arrow 3 systems costs about $2.5 million. The cost of intercepting more than 200 ballistic missiles fired at Israel since Saturday is estimated at between 1 billion and 2 billion shekels.
The munitions used by Israeli aircraft striking Iran add hundreds of millions of additional shekels to that total. The cost of intercepting drones must also be added. The Defense Ministry's orders for additional munitions from Israeli defense industries after the war will translate into hundreds of millions of dollars in extra revenue for those companies.
IDF video showing Israeli Air Force striking Iranian launch sites, disabling about 300 launchers:
Another potentially significant cost lies in the wear and tear on aircraft during the first four days of the current operation. The Israel Air Force has already conducted about 1,600 sorties, compared with roughly 1,500 during the entire June operation.
Sources familiar with the matter say this war differs from the previous one in that the Air Force is now refueling its aircraft using American refueling planes rather than relying solely on Israeli tankers. This allows Israeli aircraft to fly longer distances and conduct sorties more frequently.
Refueling aircraft are no longer a bottleneck, as they were in the previous operation, and Israeli jets are spending more time in the air as a result.
Israel's rapid achievement of air superiority also allows its aircraft to fly faster and cover wider areas while heading toward what are described as "quality targets," rather than spending time hunting Iranian air defense batteries.
The main concern is not the cost of each sortie – which amounts to tens of thousands of shekels – but the physical wear on aircraft and the accumulating fatigue among pilots. If the war ends after 12 days, like the previous one, the wear will likely be negligible. If it lasts longer, the picture could change.
Iran is launching missiles toward Israel in smaller numbers and at a slower pace than during the 12-day war in 2025. In June, barrages sometimes included as many as 100 missiles in a single attack. In the current round, the largest barrage so far has consisted of 15 missiles.
The relentless strikes by Israeli and U.S. aircraft on Iranian launchers are one reason for this, along with the fact that Iran has not had time to rebuild its launch capabilities since the previous operation.
Israeli air defense systems – and American systems assisting Israel – have also undergone software updates over the past six months. This is likely one reason the interception success rate now appears higher than the roughly 85 percent reported at the end of the previous operation.
Yet the relative scarcity of Iranian fire could paradoxically lead to higher economic costs. As one source involved in the matter put it: "They are starting to resemble the Houthis, who fire a single missile once every few days over a long period."
It is unclear whether Iran's "drip" approach reflects a coherent strategy or simply the reality that they are firing whatever missiles they can, Ran Kochav, a former commander of Israel's air and missile defense forces and a former IDF spokesperson, tells Haaretz.
Even with fewer launches, however, Iran is producing a similar effect on Israel this week to what the country experienced in June – particularly in terms of restrictions imposed on the public and disruptions to the economy.
This situation could challenge the government's policy on restrictions as the war continues. Several factors may be contributing to the disruption, including Israel's early-warning system.
"The early-warning system used in this war provides a sense of security but also wears down the home front," Kochav says. "For every launch toward Israel, we receive two alerts in advance and then another message telling people they can leave shelters or safe rooms. During launches from Lebanon, for example, there was no 10-minute warning, and people were suddenly told to run immediately to shelters."
"The warning policy has been tightened to give people time to prepare, but it also creates a sense of burden. On Tuesday night, for instance, there was a threat to two targets in Israel – Eilat and the north – and half the country entered shelters for 40 minutes," Kochav explains.
Another factor is Iran's use of autonomous aircraft.
"We have to pay attention to drone launches and to any threat that is not a ballistic missile," Kochav says. "In the 2025 war we intercepted nearly 1,000 of them. Now it appears that most Israel Air Force aircraft are busy hunting Iranian surface-to-surface missiles. That could allow more drones to penetrate Israeli airspace, partly because the Americans are less involved in this effort as they focus on defending their own forces."
He adds that Hezbollah has also joined the campaign, forcing some Israeli air defense systems to focus on threats from the north.
"There are more drones that citizens in places like Petah Tikva or Jerusalem are experiencing firsthand," he says. "Even though none have hit their targets so far, they increase the frequency of sirens."
"Unlike a ballistic missile, with a drone you don't know exactly where it will fly," Kochav explains. "Warnings must be activated along its entire trajectory, which gives it a greater disruptive capability."
Reports published by Bloomberg that Qatar's stock of Patriot interceptor missiles could run out by Friday have highlighted the difficulties Gulf states face in confronting aerial attacks. The situation also has implications for Israel.
During the 2025 war with Iran, the United States was primarily focused on defending Israel. Now it must also protect its allies in the Gulf and its own forces deployed throughout the region.
"Defense is always a scarce resource – I would prefer that we have more interceptors," Kochav says. He notes that the Americans told Bloomberg they have already used 25 percent of their interceptors.
Commercial interests of THAAD system manufacturer Lockheed Martin could be involved in such reports. But in the 2025 war with Iran, without the Americans by our side, we would have coped less effectively with the Iranian attack."
As a result, Israeli systems are now covering some of the defensive burden previously handled by American systems during the war last summer – an added economic cost. And as the war continues, this cost will only increase.
The jets were located at the airport in Isfahan, the city where Israel had previously destroyed Ghadr-class ballistic missiles and their launch platforms.
"We want to tell you that the hand of the State of Israel will continue to pursue every successor and every person who seeks to appoint a successor," the IDF wrote.
Members of the IRGC, the Basij, and other repressive forces still deployed in the streets have become fatigued and desperate, the officer said.
The announcement, which named the victims as Lieutenant Colonel Abdullah Emad Al-Sharrah and Major Fahd Abdulaziz Al-Mujammad, didn't detail the circumstances of their deaths.