ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 7, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

The Russian military command likely has laterally redeployed elite airborne (VDV) and naval infantry units from the Pokrovsk direction and the Dobropillya tactical area in eastern Ukraine to the southern frontline, likely in part in order to respond to recent Ukrainian gains in the Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk direction.
The Russian military command’s redeployment of some VDV elements to southern Ukraine in January before Ukrainian forces began counterattacking suggests that Russia may have been planning to continue exploiting tactical successes in the Hulyaipole direction in Spring and Summer 2026. Ukraine’s counterattacks in February 2026 thus may have disrupted Russia’s plans to continue exploiting tactical successes in Zaporizhia Oblast and also may have generated spoiling effects for the anticipated Spring-Summer 2026 offensive against Ukraine’s Fortress Belt.
The Russian military command’s redeployment of troops from efforts in Donetsk Oblast to Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia oblasts illustrates the competing dilemmas that the Russian military command faces in attempting to conduct simultaneous offensive efforts, further complicated by recent Ukrainian counterattacks.
Russian forces conducted a large-scale series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of March 6 to 7 that resulted in significant civilian casualties in Kharkiv City.
The March 6 to 7 Russian strike series notably contained a higher quantity of ballistic missiles than Russia usually includes in its regular strike packages. Russia is likely trying to exploit Ukraine’s shortage of Patriot interceptors and take advantage of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Ukrainian forces conducted an Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS)/SCALP-EG missile strike against a Russian Shahed drone launch site near occupied Donetsk City on March 7.
Swedish authorities seized on March 6 a tanker that may be part of the Russian shadow fleet and has previously shipped stolen grain from occupied Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova.