Recent escalations in the war reflect intensified military exchanges and growing strategic pressure on Russia, as Ukraine expands its drone capabilities and shifts battlefield dynamics. Ukrainian strikes have targeted Russian oil infrastructure and logistics routes linked to Crimea, while Russia has
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In recent weeks, the war has escalated. Ukraine has blocked logistics in Crimea and deprived Russia of oil revenues, with drones and missiles striking two-thirds of its oil refineries, as well as numerous military plants and factories. Now we’ve seen Moscow oil refineries in flames.
Russia is responding with fiercer missile and drone attacks and increasingly impassioned rhetoric. Recently, Russian politicians have adopted a new strategy for intimidating Ukraine and Europe. They’ve started talking about detonating four nuclear missiles in western Ukraine, from Volyn, bordering Belarus, to the border with Moldova.
The “plan” would be to create a radioactive buffer zone where no one could live or travel. In other words, according to Russian politicians, Ukraine’s access to the EU would be blocked by an invisible, radioactive wall, leaving Ukrainians with only one option – assimilation by the Russian Empire.
An incredible scenario, you might think, but ten years ago, when the late Russian right-wing politician, Zhirinovsky, said that Moscow should bomb Kyiv and Lviv, Ukrainians laughed at him. He was considered a clown. Today, when we read about Russia’s nuclear threats, no one laughs. The wildest dreams of Russian politicians could very well become reality.
Last week’s Russian drone strike on the Lavra will remain in the memory of Ukrainians and, I think, in history books, just as the horrifying tragedy in Bucha and the missile strike on the Kyiv Children’s Hospital will remain significant markers in the history of this war. Five years ago, they were all events that few, if any, Ukrainians would have believed possible.
War in Ukraine - Latest update, key takeaways and map from the Institute for the Study of War on June 21, 2026
Indeed, I think most Ukrainians assumed that the Lavra – a symbol of the orthodox faith – was as sacred to Russians as Ukrainians, but our eastern neighbors are obviously scraping the barrel for ways to torture Ukraine.
Most importantly, the more Russian missiles and drones fly at Ukrainian cultural sites, the stronger Ukrainian identity becomes. For Russia, it’s a vicious cycle. For Ukraine, it’s a painful recognition of cultural losses, but also a basis for even greater unification around our cultural and historical values.
Recently, while Russian drones were attacking Kharkiv, Kyiv, Dnipro, and other cities, and Ukrainian drones attacked Moscow and the bridges leading from the occupied territories of Ukraine to Crimea, a truck carrying a particularly valuable cargo – the painting “The Arrest of Christ” by the Italian artist Caravaggio, was making its way from Odesa to Vilnius.
An exhibition dedicated to this one painting and its story will soon open in the Lithuanian capital. After the exhibition, the work will remain in Vilnius until the end of the war. This formula has been developed in recent years for the transportation of particularly valuable pieces from Ukrainian museums to Europe.
The majority of Ukrainian museum collections are currently stored in the vaults of museums around Europe. Ukrainian museums that remain open display less valuable works. Their destruction would also be a great loss for the art world. However, no Ukrainian politician dares to suggest the closure of all museums.
Ukrainians themselves refuse to be deprived of cultural life. They go to museums and theaters, book fairs, and classical music concerts whenever possible, and, of course, they go to the Pechersk Lavra to experience its almost 1000-year history.
In the recent Russian attacks on cultural sites, Oreshnik missiles were mercifully absent. These extremely destructive ballistic missiles can release multiple warheads, including nuclear warheads.
So far, Russia has launched three Oreshnik missiles, without nuclear warheads, at Ukraine. The first was fired at the city of Dnipro in 2024 and truly frightened Europe. Russia recently launched two more, one of which fell short of its target, striking occupied Donbas, and the second fell in the Kyiv region, but clearly far from its target too.
The Oreshnik’s apparent lack of reliability could be behind its absence in recent attacks, and this should leave the Russians looking for an alternative – something that can significantly change their luck in this war.
Putin is still confident that he can push the Ukrainian army out of Donbas, but his optimism is probably based on well-edited reports from the Russian Army HQ. Certainly, he has big plans for the second half of the summer and into the fall.
Zelensky has big plans too. He has promised that Ukrainian ballistic missiles will soon enter serial production. Meanwhile, just one day after the shelling of the Pechersk Lavra and other historical and cultural sites in Ukraine, Ukrainian drones attacked Moscow, setting the Moscow Oil Refinery on fire.
Ukraine has finally included Moscow in its drone firing range, and, as a result, we can expect the dynamics of the war to accelerate in the coming weeks and months. There will be more destruction in both Russia and Ukraine, more civilian casualties, but the denouement and end of the war may also come closer. Primarily because the pressure on Putin from the Russian business elite will only increase, and Putin will either have to succumb to this pressure and agree to negotiations with Ukraine or launch repressions against his own business elite.
In either case, Russia will have trouble glimpsing its dreamed-of victory, because, as the song tells us: “When your heart’s on fire, you must realize, smoke gets in your eyes.”
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
