Will Khamenei’s Son Succeed Him? Inside Iran’s Succession Battle as Strikes Continue
Sociologist and rights watchdog director Ramin Jabbarli says Iran’s blackout has cut internet and phone lines since strikes began, as the Khamenei succession fuels civil war fears.
Kyiv Post
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“On the US calendar it’s still March 4,” Jabbarli said, “but so much happens in a single day that sometimes it would normally take months or years.”
Ramin Jabbarli is a sociologist and the director of the Seattle-based Foundation for Inclusive Society, an NGO that regularly monitors the human rights situation in Iran. He told Kyiv Post that since airstrikes began last Saturday, it has not only been the internet – but even phone lines have been cut off.
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“It’s not only about protests,” Jabbarli said. “They don’t want information to spread quickly… They want to limit communications.”
Monitoring group NetBlocks reported Iran’s connectivity falling to around 1% of ordinary levels during the blackout. Jabbarli said some footage escapes via satellite links like Starlink or through devices brought out of the country, but described those routes as limited and risky.
Khamenei’s son “worst option” for succession
The most urgent political question, Jabbarli said, is what comes after Khamenei – and whether the succession stabilizes the system or becomes another trigger for conflict.
“There are different alternatives being discussed,” he said. “One is Khamenei’s son. Another is [Iran’s first supreme leader Ruhollah] Khomeini’s grandson. Hassan Rouhani is also mentioned.”
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But he drew a hard line on what he sees as the most destabilizing direction.
“Among them, the worst alternative… would be Khamenei’s son,” Jabbarli said, arguing that a dynastic handover would likely harden the system rather than open a path toward de-escalation.
International reporting has likewise described Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as a leading contender, highlighting his ties with elite security institutions and his influence inside clerical networks.
Jabbarli said other names floated as comparatively “reformist” or pragmatic would not guarantee democratization after years of repression and war – at most, a tactical easing to stop the fighting.
IRGC – “a state within a state”
Even if Iran loses senior figures at the top, Jabbarli argued that one institution is designed precisely to keep the system standing: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
“It’s not just military,” he said. “It’s everything. It’s power. It’s a state within a state.”
Jabbarli described the IRGC as a parallel structure with deep reach into intelligence, internal security, and the economy, including major infrastructure and “mega-project” contracting.
He said there is a reason authoritarian systems often build elite parallel forces – because loyalty matters most.
“This is the model authoritarian regimes love; it can outlast cabinet reshuffles or public anger because it’s built to protect the core,” Jabbarli said.
“The state still exists” – but the cracks can spread
Despite the shock of decapitation strikes, Jabbarli rejected claims that Iran’s leadership has already stopped functioning.
“There is still authority,” he said. “If it didn’t exist, it couldn’t continue… Counter-strikes continue. Life continues. The administration hasn’t collapsed yet.”
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Jabbarli said he had seen reporting – including on CNN – suggesting that talks were underway with Kurdish armed organizations and that outside actors might seek to use their strength to accelerate regime change without deploying large numbers of foreign troops.
He said it would be a big gamble, and warned it could push events toward internal war. “I see a high probability this leads to civil war,” he said.
He cautioned that armed groups will not limit themselves to targeting regime officials. If empowered, they may pursue their own political and even territorial goals, including seizing cities in contested areas.
“They won’t just be busy terrorizing officials,” he said. “They have their own aims – and they could occupy cities.”
He also suggested that US and Israeli goals may diverge. For the United States, he said, removing Iran’s leadership may be the priority. For Israel, he argued, the war is also about shifting the regional balance of power – and Kurdish forces could be seen as a tool in that broader strategy.
Diaspora celebrations are real – but not representative
The scenes of celebration in the Iranian diaspora were real – especially in Los Angeles. But Jabbarli pushed back on the idea that they show a coherent, unified political alternative for Iran.
“The diaspora is not representative of the people inside Iran,” he said.
He argued that the Iranian community in the United States is shaped heavily by the post-1979 exile waves, particularly those who left during the Islamic Revolution and settled in Southern California.
“If you look at the migration waves, especially during the Islamic Revolution, many of those who came – especially to Los Angeles – were Pahlavi supporters,” he said, adding that later arrivals and younger generations live inside that same community.
In Jabbarli’s view, that history explains why pro-monarchy imagery is often so prominent in diaspora protests and rallies. But he drew a sharp distinction between celebrating the collapse of a hated leader and agreeing on what should replace the system.
“People are happy that a dictator is removed,” he said. “But that doesn’t mean they agree on what comes next.”
He also said not all Iranian-Americans attend Pahlavi-branded events, because many see him as “not a correct alternative” and are wary of a transition that centers on a figure who has spent decades outside the country.
As Jabbarli put it, “Wanting the regime gone is not the same as knowing what you want after it.”
As the strikes continue and more escalation looks imminent, Jabbarli said he hopes Iran moves toward a future decided through politics, not guns – because those who have survived decades of repression deserve a better life.
