Without Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Likud would likely receive fewer than 20 Knesset seats, according to a Maariv readers’ poll published Wednesday, amid reports that he could form a new political framework and internal party debate over reserved slots on the Likud list.
Asked what would happen to Likud without Netanyahu, 70% of respondents said the party would receive somewhere under 20 seats, with 36.4% saying the party would receive between 10 and 20 seats, and 33.9% saying it would fall below 10 seats.
Still, some respondents said the Likud brand would remain politically viable after Netanyahu. Some 15.6% said Likud could still win 30 or more seats without him, while 14.1% said it would receive between 20 and 30 seats.
Among opposition voters, 42.4% said Likud would receive 10-20 seats without Netanyahu, while 37.7% said it would fall below 10 seats. Only 8.3% said Likud could still reach 30 or more seats.
Among coalition voters, the picture was more divided. Some 28.5% said Likud would fall below 10 seats without Netanyahu, 28.2% said it would win 10-20 seats, 17.5% said it would receive 20-30 seats, and 25.9% said it could still reach at least 30 seats.
Netanyahu-led party draws mixed expectations
The poll also examined the opposite scenario: Netanyahu running without Likud. Here too, respondents were split.
Some 33.4% said a new party led by Netanyahu would win 10-20 seats, while 28.4% said it would receive fewer than 10. By contrast, 20.4% said such a party could reach 30 seats or more, and 17.7% said it would win 20-30 seats.
The divide between coalition and opposition voters was sharper on this question. Among opposition voters, 41.5% said a Netanyahu-led party would win 10-20 seats, 33.5% said it would receive fewer than 10, and only 7.5% said it would reach 30 or more.
Among coalition voters, 38.5% said a Netanyahu-led party would win at least 30 seats. Another 22.2% said it would receive 10-20 seats, 21.3% said it would fall below 10, and 18% said it would win 20-30 seats.
The question of reserved slots on the Likud list, which could become a major internal flashpoint, drew clear opposition among respondents. Asked whether the Likud Central Committee should approve 10 reserved slots for Netanyahu, 50.5% said no slots should be approved at all.
Another 32.3% supported approving 10 reserved slots, while 17.2% said Netanyahu should receive only five.
Among opposition voters, 66.4% said no reserved slots should be approved. Among coalition voters, however, 52.3% supported granting Netanyahu 10 reserved slots, 19.3% supported five, and 28.4% opposed approving any.
Strategic adviser Yossi Tatika said he expected resistance within Likud to any move granting Netanyahu 10 reserved slots. Longtime activists who have remained loyal to the party and worked for years to advance within it would not easily accept such a high number, he said.
“I do not believe that a quantity of 10 will pass quietly,” Tatika said.
Still, Tatika noted that Likud has a history of reserving slots for its leader before elections. He said a compromise over the number was likely, noting that Likud had two reserved slots ahead of the 24th Knesset election and five in the most recent election.
“There must be balance, because Likud is built on a very broad base of members and activists who work hard on election day and have deep commitment,” he said.
Tatika estimated that if Likud had more than 140,000 members, together with their circles of influence, they could amount to more than 400,000 votes on election day. That, he said, could translate into a double-digit number of Knesset seats.
“Their enthusiasm is therefore critical to success at the ballot box,” he said.
Regarding the possibility that Netanyahu could form a new party, Tatika said it was too early to assess the scenario because Netanyahu himself had not said so publicly. Still, he added, “Politically, most of the movement’s strength comes from the chairman, and if a new party is formed, that would be very bad news for Likud.”
The poll was an open online readers’ survey and was not a scientific poll or a representative sample of the Israeli public.