Hungary is going to the polls in nine days - after 16 years in power, can Viktor Orban be unseated?
10 hours ago
Nick ThorpeBudapest correspondent
BBC
"All they stand for is anger, hatred, and destruction," roared a hoarse Viktor Orban. The Hungarian prime minister was speaking at a mass election rally in Györ in western Hungary on 27 March, referring to opposition protesters who chanted "Filthy Fidesz" during his speech. For just a moment, his carefully cultivated image as the voice of calm navigating his country through stormy seas was shattered. His bad-tempered outburst showed a different side of a man used to cracking jokes and charming even his critics.
Most opinion polls put the opposition Tisza party and its leader Peter Magyar far ahead of Orban's Fidesz - the latest by 58% to Orban's 35%. And he is doing everything he can to close the gap. After 16 years of virtually unchallenged rule, Orban has been forced to take to the road again. In the past three elections, he gave few rallies. Now Europe's longest-serving leader is trying to mobilise his supporters and reach the undecided. He has just a week left to rescue his government, and the international populist movement he embodies, from a crushing defeat.
In power since 2010, Orban has had the support of both US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. He has long been a thorn in the side of the EU - and one of the few EU leaders not supportive on Ukraine. For Europe's growing band of nationalist parties, in power or on the brink of it, he is the model. The 12 April Hungarian parliamentary election is being watched closely all over the world.
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"We can notice a big change in public perception," said Endre Hann of the Median agency, a public-opinion research firm. In January, 44% of those asked said they thought Fidesz would win, compared with 37% for Tisza. By March, 47% believed Tisza would win, while 35% believed Fidesz would. "This reflects a huge change of trust. People believe that it can be changed," he says.
An intriguing dynamic is playing out in this election - the same voter anger against those seen as "corrupt ruling elites" across Europe, is now working against him. In Hungary, it is now Orban and his Fidesz party who are seen by many, especially the young, as the "corrupt ruling elite".
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The Orban government has been repeatedly accused of draining state coffers and giving state tenders for projects to companies owned by close associates. The government explains this concentration of wealth as an attempt to put wealth in national, instead of foreign hands.
The projects included bridges, football stadiums and motorways. His son-in-law, Istvan Tiborcz, owns a string of prominent hotels. His childhood friend Lörinc Meszaros, a former gas fitter, has become the wealthiest man in the country. Orban refuses to answer questions about the personal wealth of his friends and family. All deny wrongdoing.
Can Orban save himself by blaming Ukraine - and its EU backers - for his country's woes? And can the smooth-talking lawyer who hopes to unseat him convince Hungarians, particularly those in rural areas which make up the Fidesz heartlands, that he can deliver the "more humane, better functioning country" that he promises?
Each day brings a new indication that Orban is in trouble, from alleged voter-intimidation schemes to a dramatic Russian proposal to stage a fake assassination attempt on Orban.
But Fidesz claims the sense that it's in trouble has been cooked up by the opposition. "All these scandals are just the usual suspects trying to build a narrative," says Zoltan Kiszelly, a political analyst from the government think tank Szazadveg. "When the opposition lose the election, this gives them an excuse to allege 'fraud'."
Political analyst Gabor Török - one of the few analysts in this extremely polarised society respected by both sides - wrote recently on his blog: "This is not the 'calm strength' or the 'strategic calm,' image, nor the one carefully cultivated for years and displayed on 'Prime Minister of Hungary' posters.
"If the remaining two weeks unfold like this, it does not bode well for the government side."
The shockwaves of an Orban defeat would reverberate far beyond Hungary's borders.
"Budapest is the headquarters of illiberal democracy in the world," argues Michael Ignatieff, former rector of the Central European University, which was forced out of the Hungarian capital in 2019. "This is not just an election. This is a referendum on that whole model of authoritarian rule that Orban represents."
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He's referring to the network of think tanks, fellowships, and gatherings of right-wing influencers who zig-zag across the Atlantic to support one another. On consecutive days last month, the American Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), a platform for people across the political right to discuss ideas, and Patriots for Europe, the right-wing European Parliament group, held major events in Budapest.
The fact that no leading US politician attended the Hungarian CPAC event this year raised eyebrows within Fidesz, but the Republicans are not leaving Orban in the lurch. US secretary of state Marco Rubio was here in February, and vice president JD Vance is expected in Budapest a few days before the vote.
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A victory for Fidesz in this election would add momentum to the chances of far-right parties in France, Germany, Poland, Spain and Portugal. Defeat for Fidesz would take some of the wind out of their sails. "While the rest of Europe is being sucked into the radical nationalist tunnel, we can show the way out," a senior Tisza official told me.
Despite a poor showing in the polls, Orban's allies deny that there is panic in the Fidesz camp.
According to Zoltan Kiszelly, the crucial factor will be whether Fidesz can persuade their supporters to get out on polling day.
"We are very optimistic. Nobody believes in the opinion polls, neither our own, nor the opposition ones," he says.
"The majority of the voters are for Fidesz. Of pensioners, of women, of the Gypsies [Roma], of the poor, of the blue collar workers, of the rural people. The question is, will they cast their vote?"
To make sure they do, Fidesz has worked hard to update its database of supporters. Around 4.5 million of the 8.2 million-strong Hungarian electorate live in small towns and villages - the Fidesz heartlands. Since 2002, Fidesz has built a strong system of local patronage in the villages - the mayor decides who receives work, and who gets firewood in winter.
According to an investigative documentary released last week, mayors have been told how many votes each village needs to produce for Fidesz. Those interviewed in the film claim the incentives include cash payments of €120 (£104) per vote, food coupons, prescription medicines and even illegal drugs in exchange for voting for Fidesz. Those who refuse say they are denied the chance to participate in public works schemes, often the only local work available.
Cars and minibuses are organised on election day. "Companions" stand by to accompany voters, who feign illiteracy or illness, into the voting booth, to make sure they vote for Fidesz and get their money, people interviewed in the film claim. There has been no official government reaction to these allegations. One minister told the BBC that any wrongdoing should be dealt with by the appropriate authorities.
Rival parties at previous elections offered potatoes and even small sums for votes, but nothing on the scale of this election, we were told by people who have been involved in elections over the decades.
"Everyone here votes Fidesz," said Nikki, 32, in Tiszabö, a village of 2,000 inhabitants, with a large Roma majority, in the northern Great Plain region of Hungary.
She praises the Fidesz mayor for rebuilding the roads, the kindergarten, and the sports centre. She claims votes won't need to be bought on 12 April, as Fidesz will win "because of the war".
Orban has told voters that this election is a simple choice between peace and war.
According to Fidesz, only Orban can prevent the "warmongers" in Brussels from dragging the EU, and with it Hungary, into the war in Ukraine against Russia.
Peter Magyar, leader of the opposition Tisza party, is painted as a puppet of Brussels. The Fidesz message is that a vote for the opposition would mean that Hungary, as a Nato member, will be forced to send Hungarian troops either in a future Nato peacekeeping operation, or a full-scale war with Russia, and young Hungarian men will die again on the eastern front. That's a message designed to resonate deeply in a country on the losing side of both World Wars. Since 2022, Orban has argued that Russia cannot be defeated, and that instead of supporting Ukraine militarily and economically, the West should pressure Kyiv to seek peace with Moscow - on Russia's terms, if needed.
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"The Fidesz anti-Ukraine, pro-Russian message is flagging," veteran pollster Endre Hann of the Median agency told me. His latest figures suggest a growing 52% of those asked agreed that "Russia committed a serious and unprovoked act of aggression against Ukraine" with its 2022 full-scale invasion. Just 33% agreed with the Fidesz narrative that "Russia acted legally, to defend its interests and security."
Orban is the most pro-Russian leader in the EU. His government has refused to follow German, Czech and Polish efforts to wean themselves off Russian oil. In this campaign, Fidesz has painted Ukraine and its leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, as the enemy. Giant billboards show a grinning Ukrainian president with the slogan: "Don't let Zelensky have the last laugh!"
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Since 27 January, no crude oil from Russia has reached Hungary via Ukraine through the Druzhba pipeline, which translates as the "Friendship pipeline". A major hub and pumping station at Brody in western Ukraine was damaged that day in a Russian attack. Hungarian refineries depend on the pipeline, and Orban accuses Zelensky of deliberately failing to restore the flow of oil in order to harm his election chances.
The "peace or war" message, argues Zoltan Kiszelly, the Fidesz analyst, is more sophisticated than it sounds.
"The government aims to connect the current situation, the threat of no oil, with practical issues like the cap on utility bills," he explains. Since 2013, all household and electricity costs have been capped by the government, resulting in the lowest prices for consumers in the EU. That is only possible, the government argues, thanks to cheap oil and gas from Russia.
Magyar, 45, is a former Fidesz insider who joined the party as an enthusiastic student, married the former Fidesz justice minister, and worked as a Hungarian diplomat in Brussels. In February 2024 he suddenly quit the party and all his posts in state companies, and gave an interview which garnered two million views within days, accusing the government of cowardice and corruption. He then founded the Tisza party, named after a tributary of the Danube.
A slight figure in neat shirts and jackets, Magyar seemed too slick and urbane to reach the hearts of the rural electorate, but has proven himself a strong challenger. Orban, 62, is a village boy who speaks village Hungarian, Magyar is a Budapest lawyer by training. Conscious that his status as a member of the metropolitan elite may make him less likely to appeal to rural voters, Magyar has toured the countryside indefatigably for the past two years, drawing large crowds. Unlike Orban, who waxes lyrical on global politics, Magyar focusses on domestic issues such as healthcare, education, transport and rural depopulation in his speeches.
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His relationship with Russia is also different. He has pledged that if he wins, "we will study and where needed change the existing contracts with Russia, [and] diversify our energy resources in every possible way". He has also promised to "restore Hungary's seat at the EU and Nato tables."
Magyar says he learnt quickly on his six nationwide tours. He quickly abandoned his notes after being criticised for sounding stilted, and started speaking "from the heart", he told me in an interview earlier this year. "After the first days, I read the criticism and learnt… to go closer to the people, to let them ask questions and reply openly and honestly, which is rare in Hungarian politics."
He has gone from a rank outsider to the man who is widely expected to unseat Orban. While Orban usually visits one city a day on the campaign trail, Magyar visits from three to six, in an effort to reach all 106 individual constituencies by voting day.
He is no stranger to controversy himself. After becoming a politician, his ex-wife depicted him as an unstable figure, prone to bursts of anger and domestic violence. Anti-Tisza protesters once held banners featuring a shoe, which he allegedly once threw at her. More recent attempts by Fidesz to discredit him include convincing a former girlfriend to secretly tape his conversations, and taking him to a party where cocaine was being used. Magyar denies any domestic abuse, and speaks fondly of his ex-wife in public. He denies ever taking drugs, and last week published the negative results of a drug test. He challenges certain Fidesz politicians to do the same.
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A poll published by the 21 Research Agency, a pro-democracy think tank, earlier this week showed the Tisza candidate pulling ahead in most of its 20 swing districts. Magyar has spoken of a "tipping point" in the countryside, and if this poll proves right, he has already reached it.
Orban and Fidesz have a media empire to amplify their message, but Magyar instead relies heavily on broadcasting each rally live on Facebook. While previous opposition leaders mustered crowds of a few dozen if they ventured out of Budapest, Magyar attracts hundreds in villages, and thousands or tens of thousands in provincial urban Fidesz strongholds.
A top Fidesz official grudgingly admitted that Magyar has "a brutal energy", which his own camp often lacks. Magyar's promise to build "a more humane, efficient country" resonates with all those fed up with the governing party, especially the young.
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What would a Fidesz victory or defeat mean for Hungary? "What we have now is a state that has been fully captured by a single party," Andras Baka, former president of Hungary's supreme court, told me. If Fidesz wins "we have an ever more rigid autocracy."
If Tisza wins, there will be a big laundry list to tackle, including restoring the independence of the courts, the state prosecution service, the state audit office, the public media, and the intelligence services from the government of the day. Whether a Tisza government can do that, and how quickly, would depend on the margin of victory.
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