Central Asia is tilting more decisively towards China as geopolitical uncertainty deepens, with Beijing’s expanding influence recasting the former Soviet states’ strategic orientation. In the first of a three-part series, Laura Zhou looks at how vulnerabilities laid bare by the Iran war might make the region look to China for water security.
The US-Israel war on Iran has crippled global supply chains, choking off the world’s energy supply alongside reserves of critical commodities like fertiliser and helium.
It has also exposed the vulnerability of the world’s most indispensable resource: water.
The bombings of desalination plants in Iran, Bahrain and Kuwait since the conflict began three months ago have raised concerns about the security of infrastructure that keeps millions of people alive across the Middle East.
These risks could also resonate in neighbouring Central Asia, where governments grappling with worsening water shortages might look to China for help in modernising their irrigation systems and managing shared rivers, observers said.
Unlike Persian Gulf countries, which rely on desalination, landlocked Central Asia depends largely on glacier-fed rivers originating in the Tian Shan mountains shared with China.
Central Asia’s water supplies are chronically strained due to “the same factors that have plagued Iran’s water supply long before the onset of hostilities”, according to Oleg Abdurashitov, chief policy adviser at Dubai-based independent public affairs consultancy Outpost Eurasia. These include climate change, population growth and increasing urbanisation.
