As the world’s largest oil and gas importer, China undoubtedly faces a significant disruption, what with the US-Israeli war on Iran and its cascading impact across the Gulf.
But it could have been worse. Beijing has worked unstintingly for well over a decade to build energy self-reliance and reduce the role of fossil fuels in powering the country’s manufacturing economy.
For leaders gathered in Beijing for the annual parliamentary “two sessions” meetings, which will endorse China’s 15th five-year plan, the Iran conflict will provide the strongest vindication of its long-standing energy security strategy – in particular its “30-60 plan” to lead the world in renewable energy development and build a new national energy system, peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving a net zero economy by 2060.
There will be keen interest in what the new five-year plan will say in detail on the energy security plan going forward.
China has been under acute pressure over the past decade because of its colossal consumption of fossil fuels and contribution to global warming. It could not have become a manufacturing superpower without a massive investment in power generation, with the lion’s share coming from coal-fired plants. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says China’s power generation per capita has soared by over 550 per cent since the turn of the century.
China’s economic rise has come at huge environmental cost, in terms of carbon emissions and air pollution. China’s energy sector is responsible for nearly 90 per cent of its greenhouse gas emissions, with coal still accounting for over 60 per cent of power generation. Air pollution driven by coal-fired power is estimated to have caused over 400,000 deaths in 2021 alone.
