Iran War or Energy War? What It Will Take to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz?
Twelve days into the conflict, the fight for the Strait of Hormuz has become central to the war, prompting a historic crude reserve release. But will it be enough to ease tensions?
Kyiv Post
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Twelve days into the conflict, one of the central issues is now the fight for the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas shipments. Despite efforts to reopen Hormuz and restore the free flow of oil, the strait remained almost closed, with commercial shipping heavily disrupted by Iranian attacks and safety fears.
Asked by a reporter on Wednesday what the United States was doing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump said it was “working out very well” and added: “You will see that.” Earlier, Trump said the administration was advising companies to keep using the Strait of Hormuz, but it stopped short of offering a clear safety guarantee.
Member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed unanimously on Wednesday to release 400 million barrels of oil into the global market – the biggest emergency release ever – in an effort to boost supply and slow the rise in prices caused by the Middle East war.
Washington said it would release 172 million barrels of oil from the US strategic reserve as part of that broader effort.
The move is historic in size, but it may still not be enough. The Strait of Hormuz normally carries about a 20 percent of the world’s oil supply. According to IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, the disruption is blocking around 15 million barrels of crude oil and 5 million barrels of other oil products from global markets every day. At that pace, the 400 million barrels would cover only about 26 days.
President Donald Trump suggested earlier this week that Iran itself may have been responsible but later said he could “live with” whatever the investigation reveals.
It is also unclear how much the reserve release will lower fuel prices for consumers. In 2022, the combined release of US and international reserves lowered gasoline prices in the United States by only about 17 to 42 cents a gallon, according to a US Treasury estimate.
So the reserve release may ease pressure for a while, but it will not solve the problem if Hormuz remains effectively shut.
Asymmetric fight back on the agenda
The idea of asymmetric warfare is as old as war itself: when the weaker side cannot win head-on, it uses unconventional and lower-cost methods to raise the cost for a stronger enemy. Iran, however, has developed that logic into a core part of its national security doctrine.
There is a clear historical parallel. During the 1980s Tanker War, Iran and Iraq attacked merchant shipping in the Gulf to damage each other economically. Tehran learned from that period that even if it could not win a direct military contest, it could still hurt stronger enemies by disrupting trade and energy flows.
That lesson remains central today. The battlefield may be regional, but the pressure is felt worldwide.
Mosaic defense and Iran’s multi-layered response
That broader strategy later evolved into what Iran calls “mosaic defense” – a decentralized system designed to keep the fight going even if central command is disrupted.
The concept is a core pillar of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps doctrine. It was developed specifically to counter a high-tech adversary, such as the United States or Israel, with superior air power and the ability to strike central command and control.
Iran’s defense system is also layered. It is not based on one front or one command center alone. It includes conventional forces, decentralized units, regional networks, proxy-style pressure, drones, missiles, and attacks aimed at economic infrastructure and shipping.
Former US Ambassador Richard Kauzlarich, reflecting on his experience in the region, pointed to that complexity when he described Iran as “a mosaic of different nationalities and minority groups” with varying degrees of support for central authority. He also warned that because of its multi-layered structure, escalation can become less predictable, and that an attack could be caused by “a rogue commander taking the initiative under these decentralized operations now.”
A war on the battlefield, a shock everywhere else
The new Iranian leadership appears to understand that even if the fight is on the ground or in the air, the shock must be felt elsewhere – and everywhere.
As tensions peaked, the rhetoric between Tehran and Washington sharpened: Iran warned that if US and Israeli strikes continued, not “one liter of oil” would leave the region, while Trump replied that if Iran succeeded in stopping oil flows, the United States would hit back “TWENTY TIMES HARDER” with strikes so devastating they would make it “virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back.”
What do we know about Kharg Island?
As the war moves deeper into the energy sphere, Iran’s Kharg Island is emerging as a possible next point of escalation.
The island handles about 90 percent of Iran’s crude exports, making it central to Tehran’s ability to keep selling oil abroad.
But targeting Kharg would also be a major escalation. Seizing the island would not necessarily deliver a decisive result. Iran has other export options, and there is also a risk that Tehran could damage the infrastructure itself rather than let an adversary take control.
Sevinj Osmanqizi is a journalist covering US foreign policy, security, and geopolitics, with a focus on the broader post-Soviet space. She reports on Washington’s decision-making and its implications for Ukraine and regional stability.
