Regional tensions are rapidly escalating amid the US-Israeli war against Iran, raising the possibility of shifts in regional power balances across the Middle East.
Against this backdrop, assessments by the Israeli research center Alma suggest that the Syrian government may seek to take advantage of regional distraction to strengthen its military deployment and reorganize its security posture in several areas across the country.
According to a report published by the center on Friday, March 13, the ongoing war in the region has created what it described as a “tactical opportunity” for the Syrian government. Syria is not directly involved in the military operations, and the impact of the confrontation so far has been limited to missile and drone debris falling after interception operations in regional airspace.
Opportunity to weaken adversaries
The report says the confrontation between Israel and Iran, along with the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, could weaken actors that were among the main backers of the ousted regime of Bashar al-Assad during Syria’s war.
Throughout the conflict, Iran and Hezbollah played a major role in supporting the Syrian regime militarily against opposition factions. According to the report, this left deep hostility among broad segments of Syria’s Sunni community toward what it referred to as the “Shia axis.”
In this context, the Alma Center pointed to what it described as “unconfirmed reports” suggesting that Damascus may seek to exploit the regional circumstances to launch a strike or take measures against Hezbollah in Lebanon, as part of settling scores linked to the years of the Syrian war.
Reinforcing military deployment in the south
Alongside regional developments, Syrian forces have reinforced their military presence in several border areas, most notably along the borders with Iraq and Lebanon, as well as in southern Syria near the border with Israel.
The report says the deployment along the Iraqi border is aimed at preventing Iran-backed militias from infiltrating Syrian territory or using it as a launch point for attacks against Israel. Other reports suggest the reinforcements are linked to renewed Islamic State activity in al-Bukamal in eastern Syria.
Along the Lebanese border, the increased military deployment comes amid rising tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, with Damascus seeking to prevent the infiltration of fighters or the transfer of weapons across the border, in addition to limiting any spillover of the confrontation into Syrian territory.
Movements near the Golan
The center also monitored movements by Syrian forces in the south, particularly in the governorates of Daraa and Quneitra in southern Syria near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
Damascus says these measures are precautionary security steps aimed at strengthening checkpoints and preventing armed groups from exploiting regional tensions.
However, the center believes these movements could allow the Syrian government to gradually expand its military presence near the disengagement line with Israel, particularly in elevated strategic areas that provide broad surveillance over the Golan Heights and northern Israel.
Suwayda
In a related context, the report argued that regional escalation could give Damascus an opportunity to address security and political challenges in Suwayda governorate in southern Syria, the main center of Syria’s Druze community.
Since the fall of the regime, the governorate has seen a high degree of local self-administration and activity by local armed factions, alongside repeated protests against the central government.
Tensions escalated after the events of July 2025, when clashes broke out between armed Druze groups and Bedouin tribes. Syrian army and security forces later intervened, resulting in hundreds of casualties and growing mistrust between the Druze community and Damascus.
The issue also took on a regional dimension after Israel intervened politically and militarily. Israel carried out strikes that it said were intended to protect Druze communities in Suwayda, amid pressure from Druze leaders inside Israel.
Sensitive balances
The report says Damascus may try to exploit regional distraction to reinforce its influence in southern Syria. However, such steps could carry the risk of further escalation, whether with local communities or with Israel, which has repeatedly affirmed its support for the Druze community.
The center concluded that the Syrian government is seeking to restore full control over the country after strengthening its influence in other areas such as the Syrian coast and parts of northeastern Syria. Achieving this in Suwayda, however, may face major challenges given the regional sensitivities surrounding the Druze issue.
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