ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 25, 2026

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

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ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 25, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

  • A prominent Russian milblogger issued a lengthy critique of the Russian military’s inability to achieve victory in Ukraine and called for serious force generation and defense industrial reforms.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin’s continued insistence that Russian forces maintain pressure along the entire frontline with continuous, albeit slow and grinding, advances is incompatible with the reforms the Russian military and DIB would need to implement to achieve a decisive battlefield victory in Ukraine.
  • Successful Ukrainian counterattacks in northeastern and southern Ukraine in recent months are, in part, triggering such criticism in the Russian information space.
  • The Kremlin recently cracked down on another prominent pro-Kremlin blogger for challenging Putin and his conduct of the war.
  • Ukrainian forces struck the Novatek Ust-Luga oil terminal in Leningrad Oblast overnight on March 24 and 25, marking the second strike in three days against Russian oil terminals in Leningrad Oblast.
  • Ukrainian forces also targeted a Russian shipbuilding plant in Leningrad Oblast on the night of March 24 and 25, striking a ship.
  • The Kremlin’s efforts to close the Russian open internet are degrading the effectiveness of Russian air raid warning systems in border regions.
  • Russian authorities are likely trying to mitigate backlash against the recent throttling of Telegram and YouTube by promising to allow advertising on these platforms through the end of 2026.
  • Russia is trying to increase its number of trained drone operators and specialists in 2026.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Slovyansk direction, in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced in the Hulyaipole direction.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted mid-range strikes against Russian military assets in occupied Ukraine. Russian forces launched 147 drones against Ukraine.

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