Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- The Kremlin’s domestic contract recruitment campaign continues to show signs of strain under the pressure of high battlefield losses.
- The effect of a potential Russian involuntary reserve call-up on the battlefield remains unclear given Russia’s growing requirements for manpower and the fact that Ukrainian drone strikes are inhibiting Russian troop movement towards the frontline.
- Ukraine’s successful mid-range and frontline drone strike campaigns are limiting Russia’s ability to transport personnel to the frontline and to supply and sustain frontline positions.
- Ukrainian forces have created a deep zone of drone activity from the intermediate range to the frontline, and it is unclear that additional reserve mobilization would materially improve Russian forces’ battlefield performance unless Russian forces can first counter Ukrainian drone operations.
- The Russian government is reportedly considering imposing a temporary restriction on Russian diesel and jet fuel exports after several months of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries.
- Ukrainian forces advanced in Sumy Oblast and in the Kharkiv and Borova directions. Russian forces advanced in the Pokrovsk direction.
- Russian forces launched 163 drones toward Ukraine overnight.
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