ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 30, 2026

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Kyiv Post
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ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 30, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

  • Russia is reportedly preparing to conduct another massive strike against Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian forces struck Russian military assets, including an Iskander missile system, in Rostov Oblast on the night of May 29 to 30.
  • The Ukrainian strike campaign against Russian supply lines in occupied Ukraine also includes remote mining in depth.
  • The Kremlin is using the May 28-29 Russian drone strike against Galati, Romania, to set conditions to absolve Russia of blame for any accidental Russian drone strikes against Moldova, or possibly a false flag attack against Moldova, in the future.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to present claims about Russia’s battlefield successes that do not correspond with reality to pressure Ukraine to surrender to his demands.
  • Russian authorities continue their attempts to find new ways to mitigate Ukraine’s growing strikes against targets deep in the Russian rear by having oblast-level officials establish a new state entity for coordinating air defense activities, which may include overseeing the establishment of new air defense units.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka direction.
  • Russian forces launched one ballistic missile, five cruise missiles, and 290 drones toward Ukraine overnight.

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