Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the terms for Russia’s unilaterally-declared May 9 Victory Day ceasefire.
- Russia is issuing increasingly dramatic threats of escalation against Ukraine in the lead up to the unilaterally-declared Victory Day ceasefire.
- The Kremlin is likely attempting to establish that it can depopulate Kyiv City and control the decision-making of Ukraine’s partners with threats of escalating the war, even as Russian President Vladimir Putin likely seeks to disguise the weakness that Ukrainian deep-rear strikes against Russia have exposed.
- The Kremlin continues to set informational conditions to justify possible future air defense activity against NATO airspace.
- Internal Russian Presidential Administration documents suggest that Russia remains unwilling to meaningfully compromise on an end-state to the war in Ukraine.
- Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces advanced.
- Russian forces launched 102 drones toward Ukraine overnight.
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