North Africa Regional Outlook: March 4, 2026

From Algeria’s investment drive and Egypt unlocking IMF financing while expanding gas and mineral exploration, to renewed Western Sahara diplomacy as well as escalating violence across Sudan and the Sahel. The post North Africa Regional Outlook: March 4, 2026 appeared first on Stimson Center.

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North Africa Regional Outlook: March 4, 2026

From Algeria’s investment drive and Egypt unlocking IMF financing while expanding gas and mineral exploration, to renewed Western Sahara diplomacy as well as escalating violence across Sudan and the Sahel—explore the latest developments shaping North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel’s political, economic, and security landscapes.

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On Our Radar

The headlines shaping politics, security, and economics across North Africa and the Sahel.

AGENZIA NOVA

Reports on remarks emphasizing UN Security Council Resolution 2797 as reshaping the diplomatic framework around Western Sahara and reinforcing Morocco’s position.

VATICAN NEWS

Covers preparations and symbolic significance of a papal visit to Algeria, highlighting interfaith dialogue and historical ties to St. Augustine

AGENZIA NOVA

Details a proposal by a UAE-linked investor to acquire and potentially revive Morocco’s long-idled Samir refinery, with implications for energy security and downstream capacity.

L’ALEGERIE AUJOURD’HUI

Reports Algeria’s state energy firm plans a major multi-year investment push to expand upstream exploration and production capacity.

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Announces completion of Egypt’s program reviews, unlocking additional financing tied to reform benchmarks under the Extended Fund Facility and Resilience and Sustainability Facility.

ANSA

Reports security incidents in Tripoli involving armed groups entering court facilities, underscoring institutional fragility.

FRANCE 24

Covers the first-ever papal visit to Algeria, emphasizing diplomatic and religious significance.

HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH

Documents restrictions on political opposition, civil society, and media freedoms in Egypt.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Reports Ghana’s move toward a major trade agreement with China, spotlighting potential economic and strategic implications.

REUTERS

Confirms IMF disbursement following successful review milestones tied to Egypt’s reform commitments.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Details Nigeria’s refinery output expansion and its impact on domestic fuel supply.

MONGABAY

Covers negotiations over strategic mineral assets in the Democratic Republic of Congo amid global demand for battery metals.

REUTERS

Reports scientific findings suggesting Central African lakes are emitting previously trapped carbon, raising climate concerns.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Explains how elevated freight rates are pressuring margins for West African oil exporters.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Discusses efforts to mobilize domestic institutional capital to finance intra-African infrastructure and trade.

REUTERS

Reports Ghana’s plan to formalize and expand artisanal gold output through regulatory reforms.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Explores currency stabilization trends alongside continued reliance on US-dollar pricing in everyday transactions.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Details Morocco’s expansion of mining exploration areas to attract foreign investment.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Reports state participation in a major gold project as part of broader resource-nationalism trends.

MOROCCO WORLD NEWS

Opinion piece revisiting historical arguments surrounding Western Sahara’s territorial arrangements.

OILPRICE

Explains how Libya’s 2025 licensing round fell far short of expectations, including why legal, security and structural uncertainties have left many investors hesitant despite initial interest.

RFI

Reports renewed clashes in southern Libya targeting forces aligned with Khalifa Haftar.

THE CONVERSATION

Explains growing efforts to reduce reliance on imported weapons and develop domestic defense industries.

AFRIQUE XXI

Analyzes political alignments between European far-right actors and socially conservative African movements.

MEES

Reports renewed momentum behind Algeria’s pipeline ambitions and geopolitical competition.

DAILY NEWS EGYPT

Covers government plans to map mineral resources to boost investment.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Reports expansion of offshore drilling aimed at boosting production and exports.

AL-MONITOR

Analyzes how Gulf rivalries complicate Cairo’s regional positioning and economic calculations.

AL-MONITOR

Covers UN concerns that intensified attacks in Sudan risk mass atrocity crimes.

SUDAN TRIBUNE

Reports on renewed fighting and political maneuvering in Sudan, detailing developments between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the RSF as humanitarian conditions continue to deteriorate.

THE AFRICA REPORT

Examines how jihadist groups are attempting to expand operations beyond Nigeria’s northeast, analyzing strategy, recruitment patterns, and the risk of southward spread.

PREMIUM TIMES

Previews a major energy and minerals forum focused on linking extractive industries to industrialization strategies across Africa.

SEMAFOR

Covers a report estimating the value of Africa’s untapped mineral resources, highlighting implications for global supply chains and geopolitical competition.

REUTERS

Reports on a bilateral health agreement aimed at strengthening cooperation in public health systems, capacity building, and disease response.

SUDAN TRIBUNE

Sudan’s military leader, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, said the armed forces would accelerate the development of drone technology and air defense systems to build a “smart army” capable of managing modern technical warfare.

REUTERS

Analyzes record expansion in Africa’s solar capacity and the structural barriers still limiting large-scale deployment.

THE WASHINGTON POST

Draws on ACLED data to show geographic expansion of militant violence, with particular focus on the Sahel and spillover risks.

THE GUARDIAN

Reports on deadly storms impacting parts of Southern Europe and North Africa, highlighting climate-linked weather volatility.

REUTERS

Covers Washington’s decision to ease sanctions amid recalibrated engagement with Mali’s leadership.

REUTERS

Reports planned output increases at the Mabruk field as Libya looks towards restoring oil production capacities.

AL JAZEERA

Explains the rationale behind a new regional military deployment aimed at countering extremist violence and stabilizing fragile states.

Commentaries from the North Africa, Mediterranean and the Sahel Program

Deeper dives from the Stimson Center.

Stimson Center North Africa, Mediterranean and the Sahel Program Director Hafed Al-Ghwell writes for Arab News on how Libya’s path to stability depends on stronger, unified institutions and a coherent political framework amid ongoing external engagement.

Dr. Leila Hanafi writes for the Stimson Center and argues that Morocco is increasingly shaping international peace efforts not through grandstanding, but through law, institutions, and follow-through. Hanafi adds that Morocco’s credibility stems from sustained respect for international legal processes, administrative continuity, and an ability to implement agreements where others falter.

In a new policy paper for the Stimson Center, Dr. Darioa Cristiani argues that the Sahara and Mediterranean are increasingly interlinked by security and economic dynamics and that countries in the Mediterranean can no longer afford to view these as parallel or adjacent regions.

Reports & Analysis on the Region

Deeper dives from experts, think tanks, and research institutes.

COMMENTARY

A Center for Global Development analysis of how reductions in US development assistance can exacerbate fragility by weakening service delivery, governance, and conflict-prevention mechanisms.

COMMENTARY

A Brookings Institution view on the growth of Africa’s film, music, fashion, and digital industries, arguing that policy support and financing could turn such creative sectors into major economic drivers.

REPORT

A CGIAR synthesis paper for the first workstream of the “The State of Democracy in Africa: Pathways Toward Resilience and Transformation” project, where the authors summarize findings from the first five case studies, explore proxies for the continent’s democratic resilience and discuss avenues for additional research

POLICY ANALYSIS

A Brookings Institution analysis exploring the future of US–Africa economic engagement beyond AGOA, assessing industrial policy, supply chains, and strategic competition.

COMMENTARY

A Carnegie Endowment commentary analyzing how civic-space restrictions in Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia constrain climate advocacy and environmental governance efforts.

REPORT


An Africa Union (AU) policy framework and documentation outlining commitments, strategies, and member-state obligations to eliminate child marriage.

COMMENTARY


An American Enterprise Institute commentary exploring structural tensions across the Horn, including governance breakdowns and regional rivalries.

REPORT


An African Union Policy document addressing migration narratives and data trends across the continent.

REPORT


A World Bank Flagship macroeconomic outlook assessing global and regional growth risks.

COMMENTARY


An Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS) commentary assessing Benin’s counterinsurgency approach amid militant spillover from the Sahel.

COMMENTARY


A Brookings Institution commentary examining how mineral wealth can translate into inclusive growth through policy reforms.

REPORT


A Carnegie Endowment report analyzing Moscow’s evolving security footprint across Africa, including military partnerships and paramilitary involvement.

POLICY ANALYSIS


An analysis in the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs arguing that excluding women from water governance undermines climate adaptation and sustainability efforts.

COMMENTARY


A Brookings Institution commentary arguing for strategic, phased AI adoption aligned with governance capacity and infrastructure readiness.

Upcoming Events

Key briefings and conferences to watch.

Join the Stimson Center on March 12 for a public fireside chat with Ambassador Sékou Berthe, Ambassador of Mali to the United States on Mali’s political transition, security challenges, regional diplomacy, and US–Mali relations.

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) announcement and call for papers for a research conference to be held June 29–30, 2026 at Mohammed VI Polytechnic University in Rabat, Morocco, inviting work on trade and financial integration, macroeconomic policy under new external shocks, digitalization, energy, and regional cooperation.

This conference in Rabat, Morocco between July 6-11 will convene scholars and practitioners to discuss Africa-focused research and policy.

Tune In

Hear the latest insights from regional experts.

WEBINAR

Stimson Center hosted Stephanie Williams, author of “Libya Since Qaddafi,” for a public discussion exploring Libya’s conflict, diplomacy, and lessons for international peacemaking.

WEBINAR

Stimson Center hosted Tim Eaton, Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House, to discuss his recent policy brief, arguing an internationally mediated economic track is essential to curb rent-seeking, fragmentation, and support stabilization in Libya.

WEBINAR

The Atlantic Council convened experts to assess how the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) can reshape intra-African trade and investment flows.

VIDEO REPORT

A Policy Center for the New South interview discusses global monetary conditions and implications for emerging economies.

Job Opportunities

Career moves, fellowships, and calls for applications—all in one place.

SPLASH INTERNATIONAL
Regional Director for Africa (HQ)
The Regional Director, Program Delivery Africa provides strategic and operational leadership to ensure high quality, on time, and on budget delivery of Project WISE II across Splash’s African countries.

TIMEP (Call for Applications)
Open Call for 2026–2027 Nonresident Fellow Applications
TIMEP invites applications for nonresident fellows focusing on governance, reform, and accountability across the MENA region.

Code for Africa
Call for Applications – AAOSI Fellowship for Journalists
This fellowship supports investigative journalists in East and West Africa and the Sahel, emphasizing accountability and open-source research.

CESVI – Cooperazione e Sviluppo Onlus
Head of Mission – Libya (Tunis & Libya)
The person will report to the MENA Regional Manager and will work in close coordination with the MENA Regional Team as well as relevant HQ focal points to address the protection needs and promote the resilience of migrants, refugees, asylum seekers, IDPs and vulnerable host community members.

UNDP
Green Growth and Jobs Accelerator Project Officer (Cairo, Egypt)
The Green Growth and Jobs Accelerator Project will be implemented in Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan building on UNDP’s work and experience with implementing the SDG Accelerator for SMEs methodology

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)
Principal, Risk Officer (Cairo, Egypt)
EBRD is seeking a Principal Risk Officer whose role involves independently assessing credit risks across corporate and project finance transactions and advising on due diligence, risk mitigation, and sound-banking compliance. They will also review portfolio performance, assign ratings, and guide junior team members.

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Stimson Center

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