The embarrassment around Moscow’s Victory Day parade shows that a cataclysm looms for Vladimir Putin.
Kyiv Post
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The meltdown of Russia’s economy, its military collapse, and the Victory Day Parade fiasco in Moscow on May 9 highlight Vladimir Putin’s massive historical failure.
Past parades have aimed to project Moscow’s pretensions to superpower status, with a grand procession of military hardware and manpower on display before international dignitaries from around the world. But this year, weaponry won’t be on display, nor will China’s Xi Jinping or other international dignitaries be on hand to review the troops with Putin.
The public won’t even be allowed in Red Square and has been kept in the dark because the Internet was shut weeks ago to impede Ukrainian drone attacks.
Putin asked Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire on the day of the parade, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky initially refused. “Putin only cares about military parades, not human lives,” he said and did not rule out an attack on Red Square. Then he pointed out that Russia violated Kyiv’s proposed May 6 ceasefire 1,820 times.
In past years, an impressive lineup of leaders attended alongside Putin and his generals. These days, however, Putin is busy culling generals and is personally nowhere to be seen. A recent European Union intelligence report said that heightened concerns about a possible assassination have led the Kremlin to adopt extreme security measures and driven him into hiding. There are only a few unscripted settings where he appears, and most “appearances” are pre-recorded footage.
Russia launched a ballistic missile and 43 strike drones against Ukraine, hitting six locations and causing civilian deaths. In the Chernihiv region, a father and son were killed during a drone strike on an agricultural enterprise. The attack occurred as a US-mediated three-day ceasefire was scheduled to begin. While the Air Force confirmed the timing of the strikes, it remained unclear if the bombardment continued after the midnight start of the truce, which was tied to a large-scale prisoner exchange and Victory Day events.
One report noted that multiple identical offices have been set up in different locations to conceal his whereabouts and that the Kremlin forbids anyone from using cellphones around him.
Zelensky baits the Russians, and Ukrainian drone and missile attacks have increased of late. In response, Russian official Dmitry Medvedev issued another of his Armageddon “nuke” threats and said that if a real provocation occurred on Victory Day, “no one guarantees that May 10 will come in Kyiv”.
Putin should have canceled the parade, but he could not. To do so would signal weakness, even though the publicity about proceeding under these conditions underscores his failure at the front as well as his waning international reputation.
Putin no longer rules over a superpower. In fact, Russia is a third-world country with nukes. It is in a slow-motion, irreversible meltdown.
Revenues shrink, reserves drop, its civilian economy is hollowed out, its regions are more impoverished than ever, debts soar, and its future financial capacity disappears. Its GDP per capita ranks 86th globally, and falls, a trajectory that cannot be reversed.
And its military and air force cannot even protect Red Square on the 80th Victory Day anniversary from Ukraine’s debilitating attacks, so he’s whittling his big annual show down to a nub.
Putin’s imperial ambitions have not only failed, but they have also completely backfired. His invasion of Ukraine and hybrid warfare in Europe have united these countries.
Ukraine is a powerhouse, and the Europeans militarize and write big checks to bankroll Ukraine. Ironically, Putin’s obscene, unprovoked genocidal war against Ukraine has resulted in the creation of Europe’s best military and the world’s most modern force.
Kyiv’s large technology sector has reinvented warfare and turned the battlefield into the equivalent of a video game where thousands of drones and missiles are launched remotely by operators, often in the comfort of their basements.
On the battlefield, Russia now loses men faster than it can replace them. Casualty rates are widely estimated at roughly 30,000 per month. Its air force and navy have been debilitated. Ukraine, meanwhile, continues to work and reinvent warfare at warp speed. This week, Zelensky announced that another 50,000 robots will be in action on battlefields in the coming months to replenish its manpower.
Putin’s past Imperial pretensions
Fatally, Putin has squandered Russia’s economic sovereignty. It is now reliant on China as its biggest lender and owes a total of $169.3 billion.
Essentially, Beijing is Russia’s financial lifeline, a dependency that has forced Russia to accept unfavorable terms, such as steep discounts on energy exports and higher prices for Chinese imports.
This arrangement also sets up Russia for a major currency calamity, as debts climb that must be paid in Yuan. It climbs in value, and the Ruble turns to rubble, multiplying debt exponentially.
Currently, the main currency on the Moscow exchange is the Yuan, making Russia economically subordinate to Beijing. Putin has succeeded in turning Russia into an economic colony of China.
Russians are lied to and tricked by their government. Protests and commentary are forbidden. Even so, several reliable polls recently show that its people are concerned, upset, and even frightened.
This is due, in part, to the sheer volume of caskets coming back from Ukraine, but another source of anxiety is the Internet shutdown. Financial transfers are impossible, and that has resulted in a run on its banks – a situation which may foreshadow a financial crisis too. Reports are that Russians have already withdrawn billions from banks.
Declining public confidence expedites financial problems, but more evidence of a military defeat and danger from Ukrainian drones will trigger regime change. Russian chess master and activist Garry Kasparov wrote: “Putin knows that when Russia loses a war, the regime comes down too: remember 1905, 1917, and 1989.”
In 1991, the Soviet–Afghan War destroyed Afghanistan and contributed to the dissolution of the Soviet Union into 15 republics, as well as the liberation of seven European countries. Collapse came quickly with little violence. Former Soviet republics and seven Central European “satellite” nations, tethered to Moscow by the Warsaw Pact, spun off. The Soviet Union became the Russian Federation, shrinking in size from 22.4 million square kilometers to 17 million square kilometers. History will repeat.
The trajectory is obvious. Russia is losing the war, said former U.S. presidential envoy for Ukraine, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg.
“I would tell the Russians, you’re not winning this war, you’re losing this war. When you look at his loss rate, which is, right now, he’s lost about 1.2 - 1.4 million dead and wounded in this war. Remember, they left Afghanistan after losing only 18,000, so he’s got a problem economically. My idea of winning is you’d be across the Dnipro River, you’d be in Kharkiv, you’d be in Kyiv. You haven’t done that,” he said. “Why don’t you just go back to negotiate and say, this is all we’re going to get.”
Putin hurtles toward defeat. Ukraine will win because it is fighting an existential war on its own territory with continuing Western military, intelligence, financial, and technological backing. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington indicates that Russia is “in decline as a major power” and paying an “extraordinary price for minimal gains,” suggesting a Pyrrhic victory at best.
Once ended, Ukraine will quickly rebuild and join the Western alliance. Russia will fall apart, and China will take advantage and claim, in place of bad debts, Manchuria and a chunk of resource-rich Siberia up to the Arctic Ocean. Portions near Central Asia and the Caucasus will peel off, aligning with others. A new world order will have arrived, just as happened after Napoleon lost his empire at Waterloo.
Today, a cataclysm looms for Vladimir Putin, and it’s not just a metaphor—it is a certainty.
Reprinted from [email protected] – Diane Francis on America and the World. See the originalhere.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
