Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: Myanmar’s president is released from jail, Japanese troops exercise in the Philippines, Malaysia arrests critics and bans books, and a sexual harassment scandal unfolds at an Indonesian university.
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Myanmar releases imprisoned president
On April 17, Myanmar’s junta freed the country’s democratically elected president, U Win Myint, who had been imprisoned following the 2021 coup. The 27-year sentence of Aung San Suu Kyi, the preeminent leader of the opposition, was also cut by one-sixth.
The announcements came as part of a wider amnesty for 4,335 prisoners. This follows two other mass amnesties that cumulatively released some 15,000 people—not all political prisoners—in the past six months. The junta has arrested more than 30,000 people on political charges since the coup.
The release, it seems, comes with strings attached. Win Myint was reportedly told that if he reoffended he would be imprisoned again, serving his original sentence in addition to the new one.
“Do not forget that the military are still committing war crimes and crimes against humanity,” said the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners. “This amnesty is an attempt to cover up those crimes.”
Analysts of Myanmar saw the move as part of the junta’s wider push to legitimize itself. The amnesty follows stage-managed elections earlier this year, the formal end of military rule with chief Gen. Min Aung Hlaing assuming the post of president, and various influential armed groups in Myanmar congratulating Min Aung Hlaing on this, apparently under pressure from China.
“This is very much in line with the overall stage-managed ‘transition,’” Angshuman Choudhury, a researcher focusing on Myanmar, told Foreign Policy. “Win Myint doesn’t have the kind of mass appeal as Aung San Suu Kyi, so releasing him does the job of placating international partners without jeopardizing the junta at home.”
If regaining legitimacy is the aim, it may be working, with Thailand pushing the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to recognize Myanmar’s military government.
“Thailand views this development as a positive step by the Myanmar Government which is consistent with the expectations of ASEAN, and hopes that it would create a good momentum for dialogue and national reconciliation in Myanmar,” said the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in a statement.
The Thais did not mention Aung San Suu Kyi. Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow has previously said it would be “difficult” to reengage Myanmar without her release. However, he is reportedly scheduled to make his second official visit to Myanmar this week.
ASEAN’s 2026 chair, the Philippines, took a more cautious approach.
In a statement, the Department of Foreign Affairs said it “welcomes the full pardon and release” of Win Myint and called it “a constructive step.”
At the same time, it reemphasized the “paramount importance” of the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners as well.
Speculation now abounds as to whether Aung San Suu Kyi might be released from prison back into house arrest.
Security around the house in which she was previously held for 15 years has suddenly tightened, according to Channel News Asia journalist Leong Wai Kit.
What We’re Watching
Japanese troops in the Philippines. The Japanese military is back in the Philippines for the first time since World War II.
The Balikatan military exercises kicked off April 20 with more than 17,000 troops from seven countries. Over 19 days they will take part in war games and live-fire exercises headed by the United States and the Philippines.
Japan will be participating for the first time. Its contingent consists of 1,400 personnel. Its cherry on top is using a Type 88 cruise missile to sink a target ship. Japan has been steadily building up its hard power and security relations in the region—pushed by a rising China, North Korea’s nuclear program, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It is now an important security partner and equipment provider for a number of Southeast Asian countries, particularly the Philippines. On April 21, Japan announced it had amended its laws on defense equipment transfers to allow weapons sales overseas.
Other participating countries in the Balikatan exercises include Australia, Canada, France, and New Zealand.
A U.S. military spokesperson told the press that the exercise has not been affected by the Iran war. They called it one of the largest deployments in years, though they declined to provide specific numbers on U.S. personnel.
Malaysia’s banning books. The Malaysian government is becoming increasingly censorious, banning books and arresting critics.
This year, it has already forbidden the publication of 27 books. (A hat tip to Hadi Azmi of the Straits Times for noticing this.) In 2025, it blocked the publication of 24 books. This is compared to eight in 2024 and five in 2023.
The books banned this year make for an eclectic selection. The list includes Islamic guides to sex, LGBT romances, and the reissue of a memoir of a prominent communist rebel. Some of the works affected by bans in past years—like a graphic novel about childhood—have managed to overturn their bans in court.
Meanwhile, on April 14, it was reported that 38-year-old Emeela Mat Sam, aka Jorjet Myla, was allegedly arrested, remanded for three days, and probed under the Sedition Act.
Her alleged offense was posting TikTok videos critical of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. It is unclear if she will be charged. The development sparked criticism from the opposition and from inside Anwar’s own coalition.
Philippines’ public transport chaos. Philippine public transport workers struck April 15 to 17 over high fuel prices. Transport workers had already struck in late March, and a third wave of industrial action is underway. This sector has a long history of organized protest, as noted in a previous newsletter predicting political upheaval tied to fuel price spikes.
A key demand of protesters is for the government to reduce diesel prices, as well as cutting fuel taxes. The Philippines has seen some of the fastest and largest fuel price increases in the world. The country is extremely dependent on imports, often from the Middle East, so disruptions hit home fast. And unlike many other countries in the region, it does not regulate or subsidize fuel prices.
The government has rolled out welfare packages to try to support workers in affected industries. And, on April 15, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. urged the immediate activation of the 1986 ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement, which envisions ASEAN countries sharing fuel with each other to cover shortfalls.
FP’s Most Read This Week
Number of the week
25,000. The rough number of Vietnamese students currently studying in China and the United States apiece. This means each country respectively accounts for about 10 percent of Vietnamese students abroad.
The number of Vietnamese students in China has increased rapidly in recent years, to more than double the numbers in 2020. The shift has come as Chinese universities have started to dominate global university rankings.
What We’re Reading
Can Indonesia keep hedging? “Taken separately, each move is rational. Taken together, they form a pattern that is increasingly difficult to maintain with coherence.” A sharp piece by Aniello Iannone on how Indonesia’s space to maneuver between great powers is shrinking, in the Interpreter.
China’s imports of semiconductor tools from Southeast Asia have soared, even as imports from the U.S. plummet. Cheng Ting-Fang and Lauly Li dig into the numbers in Nikkei Asia.
BINI became the first-ever Filipino act to perform at Coachella this year. Sam Beltran in South China Morning Post ponders if the Pinoy music scene will go global, in SCMP.
In Focus: Indonesia’s university sex scandal
On April 15, the University of Indonesia (UI), one of the country’s top universities, suspended and placed under investigation 16 law students over alleged sexual harassment.
At the heart of the scandal was a group chat where members made sexually explicit comments about female students and lecturers. Screenshots allegedly of the chat were leaked onto X, where they triggered widespread outrage. A video later showed the accused making a public apology to other students and then getting swarmed onstage.
The scandal has sparked something of a #MeToo moment in Indonesia. Many other women have posted online about their experiences of being the subject of sexual and degrading gossip in academic and professional contexts.
Sexual harassment on university campuses has been a particular concern for some time now. A government survey in 2020 found that 77 percent of lecturers said sexual violence had occurred on their campus, and 63 percent had not reported it due to social stigma.
In a statement, UI’s Faculty of Law said a review was underway. The statement also urged restraint and for people to avoid spreading unverified information. Jakarta’s metropolitan police department has also said it is gathering information about the case.
