Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party overtook Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud for the first time in a Maariv poll released Friday, as the coalition continues its legislative blitz ahead of the Knesset’s dissolution.
Yashar placed first with 22 seats, up two from the previous poll and 10 seats higher than it polled after the April merger between Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. Likud remained at 21 seats, while Bennett and Lapid’s Together party dropped by one seat to 18.
The new party led by former culture minister Chili Tropper and Reservist leader Yoaz Hendel received 2.9% of the vote and did not cross the electoral threshold.
However, the party drew support from Religious Zionist Party voters, pushing the party down to four seats and reducing the Netanyahu bloc to 49 seats. The Arab parties maintained their strength at 11 seats.
When asked which party they would vote for if elections were held today, respondents gave Yashar 22 seats, up from 20; Likud 21, unchanged; Yisrael Beytenu and the Democrats unchanged at 10; Otzma Yehudit, Shas, and United Torah Judaism unchanged at eight; Hadash-Ta’al six, unchanged; Ra’am five, unchanged; and Religious Zionist Party four, down from five.
Bennett-led merger with Tropper-Hendel party would reach 35 seats
In a scenario in which Together and Yashar unite under Bennett’s leadership, the merged party would receive 35 seats, two more than in the previous poll but five fewer than the two parties would win separately.
In that scenario, the Tropper-Hendel party would cross the electoral threshold with five seats, with seats coming partly at the expense of Yisrael Beytenu and the Democrats, and partly from Religious Zionist Party voters.
The Religious Zionist Party would then fail to cross the electoral threshold in that scenario, receiving only 2.4% of the vote.
The bloc map in that scenario gives the Netanyahu bloc 48 seats, the Zionist opposition 56, the Tropper-Hendel party five, and the Arab parties 11. If the Tropper-Hendel party joined the Zionist opposition parties, the combined bloc would reach the 61-seat majority needed to form a government.
If Eisenkot headed the joint Yashar-Together list, the merger would receive 39 seats, two more than in the previous poll. The Tropper-Hendel party would also cross the electoral threshold in that scenario, with four seats, while Religious Zionism would remain below it with 2.9%.
Eisenkot-led merger would reach 63-seat majority for Zionist opposition
The bloc breakdown under an Eisenkot-led merger gives Netanyahu’s coalition 46 seats, the Zionist opposition 59, the Tropper-Hendel party four, and the Arab parties 11. In that case, cooperation between the Zionist opposition and Tropper-Hendel would produce a more stable majority of 63 MKs.
The poll also found that Bennett’s lead over Netanyahu on suitability for prime minister narrowed from four percentage points in the previous poll to two points, 43% to 41%. Eisenkot, by contrast, continued to widen his lead over Netanyahu, now leading him by eight points, 48% to 40%.