Damascus–Baghdad relations under threat from “Popular Mobilization” rhetoric

Ongoing relations between Damascus and Baghdad

Analyst Mohammed Turki does not see a real escalation at the state level. He stressed that the rhetoric of some Popular Mobilization members cannot be considered an escalation between Iraq and Syria, and that relations remain “long-standing and deeply rooted.”

Responding to Khalifa’s concerns, Turki said that border control lies with the border police and the Ministry of Defense, not the Popular Mobilization. He added that Iraq today is more committed to consolidating a security and stability equation through strict border control and preventing any breaches that could return the country to cycles of violence.

The Syrian-Iraqi border has recently seen military reinforcements from both sides following the outbreak of the Israeli-Iranian war, with these moves interpreted as security-driven.

Contacts to reassure Iraq

The escalation was preceded by direct communication between President Ahmad al-Sharaa and the Iraqi government in a clear attempt to contain tensions and prevent further deterioration.

President al-Sharaa and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani discussed regional developments, particularly the escalation between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other, and their implications for regional security and stability.

Both sides emphasized the importance of strengthening joint security coordination and cooperation, stressing the need to prioritize dialogue and political solutions. They also highlighted the depth of fraternal relations between Syria and Iraq and their commitment to continued consultation and coordination in a way that serves shared interests and supports regional stability.

Khalifa interpreted these contacts as part of de-escalation efforts, saying that al-Sharaa’s call aimed to reassure Iraq that Syria would not be a launching point for attacks against it, as well as to regulate the border and prevent clashes.

“This call was necessary because the region is now on fire, and Syria is trying to remain neutral, neither aligned with this axis nor that,” he said.

However, the scene remains clearly divided, according to Khalifa, who explained, “There is no unified Iraqi position. Factions such as the Popular Mobilization view Syria as a hostile state, while the government deals with it as a reality that must be managed.”

For his part, Turki linked these contacts to the nature of relations between the two countries, stating that “Iraq respects the choices of the Syrian people, even with the presence of a transitional government. There must be diplomatic relations and an exchange of interests with any existing government.”

He added that the official framework remains decisive, explaining that the Popular Mobilization is a security institution affiliated with the prime minister and cannot act without his approval, operating within official channels. Therefore, the rhetoric of some members cannot affect relations between the two countries.

De-escalation, possible but difficult

Amid regional tensions and the rising tone of the Popular Mobilization toward the Syrian authorities, there is a growing need for practical mechanisms to prevent a deterioration in political relations between the two countries.

Khalifa believes de-escalation is possible but difficult, noting that “calming the situation is not easy amid the significant escalation in the region, but it is possible through direct communication lines and preventing any slide toward confrontation.”

He warned of “a return to sectarian fighting in the region if matters spiral out of control.”

Meanwhile, Turki outlined a more stable path, stating that “there must be diplomatic relations and an exchange of interests, and Iraq will open avenues for cooperation with Syria once stability is achieved.”

He concluded that relations between the two countries are likely to develop in the future, especially as conditions stabilize in Syria, opening the door to broader economic and security cooperation.