Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- The United States and Israel are striking Iran’s drone and missile facilities to reduce the pressure on missile and drone interceptors – a capability the United States is denying Ukraine by refusing to provide Tomahawk cruise missiles.
- Russian officials continue to condemn the US-Israeli strike campaign against Iran, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to support the United States.
- Ukrainian forces liberated more territory than they lost in mid to late February 2026 for the first time since the Summer 2023 counteroffensive.
- The Russian military command continues to operate in an alternate reality, setting wildly unrealistic deadlines that do not match Russia’s actual battlefield capabilities.
- Russia has failed to achieve the objectives of its Winter 2025-2026 long-range missile and drone campaign against Ukrainian energy and civilian infrastructure.
- Insider reports continue to indicate that the Kremlin is expecting the war to continue until at least the September 2026 State Duma elections.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka. Russian forces recently advanced near Slovyansk.
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