If Netanyahu left Likud and ran in the next election as the head of his own party, he is projected to win 16 seats, according to a Maariv poll conducted by Lazar Research, headed by Dr. Menachem Lazar, in cooperation with Panel4All, published Friday.
Likud without Netanyahu was projected to win only seven seats. Together, the two parties would receive 23 seats, three more than Likud received in the current poll.
This would make Netanyahu's solo party the third-largest party after Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar! and former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid's Together, each of which would receive 20 seats.
This signifies the weeks-long decline of Together coming to an end, with the party gaining one seat and rising to 19. “Yashar!” lost one seat and fell to 20, while Yisrael Beytenu, led by Avigdor Liberman, lost another seat and dropped to 10.
Despite the higher combined total, the split would weaken the coalition bloc, reducing it to 49 seats. The opposition parties would hold 60 seats, while the Arab parties would retain 11.
The poll also found that most Israelis did not believe a government bringing together parties from both sides could be formed after the election. Thirty-five percent said such a scenario had only a slim chance, while another 27% said it had no chance at all.
Only 14% said there was a strong chance that such a government could be formed, while 24% said they did not know.
Coalition voters less certain to cast ballots than opposition, Arab party supporters
Voters who support coalition parties are less certain that they will cast ballots in the next Knesset election than supporters of the opposition bloc and the Arab parties, according to Friday's poll. The poll found that 74% of respondents were certain they would vote in the next Knesset election, while another 17% said they would probably vote. Of the remaining respondents, 3% said they were inclined not to vote, while 6% had not yet decided.
The clearest differences emerged when the results were broken down by political bloc. Among supporters of the Zionist opposition parties, 80% said they were certain they would vote, while 8% had not yet decided. By comparison, only 72% of coalition party supporters said they were certain they would cast a ballot.
Supporters of the Arab parties also expressed a high level of certainty, with 82% saying they would vote in the next election. That figure was similar to the level recorded among Zionist opposition voters.
Within the coalition bloc, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism gained one seat this week, rising to five, while United Torah Judaism also gained one seat, bringing its total to eight. Likud, by contrast, lost one seat and fell to 21, while Otzma Yehudit also dropped one seat, falling to eight.
The balance among the Arab parties also shifted. Ra’am gained one seat, bringing its total to five, while Hadash-Ta’al remained at six.
In response to the question, “If Knesset elections were held today, which party would you vote for?” the results were: Likud, 21 seats; Yashar! 20; Together 19; Yisrael Beytenu, 10; the Democrats, 10; Otzma Yehudit, 8; Shas, 8; United Torah Judaism, 8; Hadash-Ta’al, 6; Ra’am, 5; and Religious Zionism, 5.