Russian forces suffered a net territorial loss in April – the first time since Ukraine’s 2024 incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast – according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), signaling a continued slowdown across the front.
ISW estimates Russian troops lost control of 116 square kilometers during the month, even as fighting remained intense. The setback marks a shift after months of incremental, but steady, gains.
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Russian advances have been declining since late 2025, as Ukrainian counterattacks, mid-range strikes, and operational disruptions – including limits on Russia’s use of Starlink and tighter Kremlin control over Telegram – compounded battlefield challenges.
The data shows a steep drop in momentum. Russian forces captured about 1,443 square kilometers between November 2025 and April 2026 – far less than the 2,368 square kilometers seized during the same period a year earlier.
Daily gains have fallen to roughly 2.9 square kilometers in early 2026, down from nearly 10 in early 2025.
Seasonal factors may be playing a role. The spring “rasputitsa” – when thawing ground and rain turn terrain into mud – has historically slowed offensives. Still, ISW notes that structural issues are also driving the decline.
Russian forces are increasingly relying on infiltration tactics – small-unit incursions into contested “gray zones” – rather than securing and holding territory. These operations can create the appearance of progress but often leave areas outside firm Russian control.
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