Russia May Cancel Victory Day Parades Over Ukraine Strike Fears
Pro-war Russian bloggers say new Ukrainian drones are transforming the battlefield and raising security fears ahead of Victory Day.
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Russia may be forced to scale back or even cancel its most symbolic annual military spectacle as fears grow that Ukraine’s expanding long-range strike capabilities could disrupt May 9 Victory Day events in Moscow and St. Petersburg.
Russian authorities are considering scrapping the traditional parades because of the threat posed by Ukrainian long-range weapons, The Moscow Times reported on Tuesday.
The concern is not only that Ukraine could strike, but that even an air raid alert over Red Square would shatter the image of order and control the Kremlin tries to project on one of the most politically important days in Russia’s calendar.
A missile warning, panic in the crowd, or the sudden clearing of Red Square would expose the Kremlin’s vulnerability in the heart of the capital.
Further fueling speculation, reports said a scheduled ground rehearsal on April 5 was abruptly halted and troops were told to return to their permanent deployment points until further notice. Asked about possible changes to the parade, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov gave no direct answer, saying only: “We are preparing for the celebration of Victory Day.”
Drone anxiety
The anxiety appears linked to Ukraine’s growing long-range strike capabilities, as recent battlefield data suggests Kyiv’s drone campaign is widening in both scale and reach. ABC News reported on Monday that Ukraine launched more strike drones against Russia in March than Russia launched against Ukraine, the first such month since the full-scale invasion began.
Ukraine is allowing private firms to deploy air defenses to counter Russia’s drone attacks, integrating them into military systems to boost protection of key infrastructure.
Inside Russia’s pro-war camp, the shift has triggered a more uncomfortable question: if Ukrainian drones can increasingly hit logistics, ports, oil facilities and transport far behind the line, what does that say about the state of Russia’s air defenses?
Russian military bloggers say the battlefield has changed qualitatively. Sergey Kalyastnikov wrote that Ukraine has fielded a new generation of drones creating severe logistical problems for Russian forces. He said the drones operate day and night, are hard to hear, evade standard detectors, resist electronic warfare, and can strike at longer range when supported by airborne relays using Starlink. A commander from the Akhmat unit, Apti Alaudinov, also claimed recently downed drones appeared to be upgraded models, possibly produced with German or French involvement, though that assertion remains unverified.
Yegor Chernev, deputy chairman of the Ukrainian parliament’s national security and defense committee, said Russia’s situation would keep deteriorating and that the Kremlin should already be thinking about surrender.
Why May 9 matters
Victory Day has long been staged as a showcase of military power, patriotic unity, and state control. Any disruption, even a warning siren with no strike, would puncture that message in front of domestic and international audiences.
Since launching its full-scale invasion in 2022, Moscow has used the May 9 parade to link the Soviet victory in World War II to the modern Russian state and, increasingly, to its war against Ukraine. The Kremlin may now see the risk of public embarrassment during the parade as outweighing the value of staging a full-scale celebration under threat.
If the parade is cut back, delayed, or canceled, it will amount to an admission that Ukraine’s growing strike reach is forcing Russia to rethink even its most sacred political rituals.
Pressure on Russia’s war machine
Ukraine is also targeting infrastructure that funds Russia’s war.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has argued that strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and ports are reducing Moscow’s oil export revenues at a critical time, as Russia stands to gain from higher oil prices caused by wider regional instability.
Zelensky has also been clear about Kyiv’s plans to expand its long-range strike capabilities.
“Our production potential for drones and missiles alone will reach $35 billion next year,” Zelensky said in October. “Despite all the difficulties, Ukrainians are creating their national defense product that, in certain parameters, already surpasses many others in the world.”
Sevinj Osmanqizi is a journalist covering US foreign policy, security, and geopolitics, with a focus on the broader post-Soviet space. She reports on Washington’s decision-making and its implications for Ukraine and regional stability.
