China’s recent diplomatic efforts in the Middle East have led to speculation over whether its global strategy has shifted. There is consensus that China is stepping into a leadership role and trying to play peacemaker. Meanwhile, a few sceptics point out that the US-Israel war on Iran is not about China and has only exposed how thin Beijing’s influence is in the region.
We’ve been here before.
In the last decade, with each moment of conflict in the Middle East and North Africa, from Syria to Libya to Palestine, China has urged a consistent response: a cessation of hostilities followed by immediate negotiations to reduce tensions, either in an international forum or mediated by China.
With the exception of the 2023 Saudi-Iran normalisation agreement, none of these suggestions was seriously engaged with. But while China’s diplomatic record in the region is spotty and limited, its strategy might still be successful from Beijing’s perspective.
Less than a week after the US-Iran ceasefire, Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed a four-point plan for peace and stability in the Middle East during a meeting with the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. In a veiled criticism of American policy, Xi warned the world could not risk returning to “the law of the jungle”.
The same day, China’s foreign ministry described the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the latest escalation, as “irresponsible and dangerous”. On Monday, during a call with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, Xi said the waterway should remain open for normal passage and that “China advocates an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire”.
