European governments breathed a sigh of relief in October when the US and China sealed a fragile trade truce that paused more sweeping Chinese rare earth restrictions and papered over a Sino-Dutch row over chipmaker Nexperia.
Now, however, the European Union is being urged to come up with a battle plan should the ceasefire fail or expire.
A spike in superpower tensions could expose the EU to Chinese export controls, potentially pulverising its military support for Ukraine, its own efforts to rearm, as well as its broad industrial upgrade, according to a new paper from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
To ready itself, Europe must “learn to fight for itself” by realising the economic weapons at its disposal, but also figure out when and how to use them.
“This could expire in a few months – what happens when this deal is over? If China comes back and reinstates export controls you’d better be prepared. We should not wait until the next crisis hits, you have to build up your cards now,” said Tobias Gehrke, an expert in geoeconomics at ECFR and lead author of the report.
Inside the Nexperia crisis: the future of chip supply chain | China Future Tech webinar
