Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- Ukrainian forces have largely halted the Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive so far, and Russian forces in May 2026 have gained a presence in only a fraction of the territory they did in May 2026.
- Other sources with different methodologies are also recording a slow Russian rate of advance in May 2026.
- Russia’s declining gains appear to be unrelated to the seasonal weather shifts that traditionally hinder advances but is likely the result of more comprehensive battlefield shifts in 2026.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly resisting pressure to reduce defense spending and end his war against Ukraine despite increased warnings from economic officials about the unsustainable strain his war effort is putting on the Russian economy.
- Putin’s unwillingness to cut defense spending and scale down his war effort suggests that Putin believes that he will be able to win the war in the near to medium term and that the Russian economy is able to hold on until then.
- Ukrainian forces advanced in the Pokrovsk direction.
- Russian forces launched 265 long-range drones at Ukraine overnight.
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