Stopping the bombs is a step, but as long as the regime itself is left in power, there will be no change vis-à-vis Iran, with or without a deal.
The United States and Iran left Islamabad on Sunday without a deal. More than 20 hours of talks, and both sides walked out, blaming the other. Washington said Tehran refused to make any enforceable commitment to abandon its nuclear program, and Tehran said the American demands were excessive and that the negotiations had been conducted in bad faith.
Pakistan, which hosted the talks, appealed to both sides to respect the fragile two-week ceasefire.
The problem with the US sitting down to talks with Iran after over a month of bombing the country is one of optics. The ghost of the 2015 nuclear deal hangs over each conversation. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action under the Obama administration gave Iran sanctions relief without changing how the regime actually behaved.
As usual, it bought time, money, and a degree of international legitimacy that the Islamic Republic used to dig in at home and extend its reach abroad. Few observers this time around are interested in a repeat. US President Donald Trump has told the Iranian people repeatedly that America will not abandon them, but agreeing to a ceasefire, sitting down for talks, and, in essence, letting the regime survive intact – even battered – would do exactly that.
Vice President JD Vance, who led the American delegation, was blunt after the breakdown. The failure to reach an agreement, he said, was “bad news for Iran much more than for the United States.” Iran’s nuclear program remained Washington’s central red line. Tehran, for its part, said that decades of conflict could not be resolved in a single session and that the talks had never really had a chance.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a thorn in the side of the Americans and a seemingly insurmountable problem for Trump, despite threats. Iran wants control of the waterway, transit fees, and a ceasefire that extends to Lebanon. The US wants freedom of navigation guaranteed and Iran’s nuclear infrastructure irreversibly dismantled. A handful of tankers have now passed through, while hundreds more sit waiting in the Gulf.
Trump has said a deal may not be necessary. He told reporters over the weekend that it makes “no difference” to him whether an agreement materializes and that the US has already done what it came to do. That is a comfortable position to hold in Washington, but one that looks a little different in the region.
Netanyahu: Israel's campaign in Iran 'not over'
Over in Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated on Saturday that the campaign against Iran was not over. He described Iran as weakened and internally fractured but still dangerous and said flatly that without Israeli military interventions, Iran would already have the bomb.
Nobody wants the war to continue. Israelis have spent weeks under bombardment. Iranians have been living under something close to an internal siege, with over 40 days of an internet blackout, checkpoints, and a security apparatus watching for signs of dissent.
But the Islamic Republic has a well-established habit of using pauses in external pressure to turn inward and accelerate repression. Already, the signals are there. Last week, the judiciary called for faster executions, and IRGC figures told the country’s youth that “the era of mercy is over.” When the bombs stop, the external threat recedes, and the internal one returns.
Iranian opposition figures are not celebrating the ceasefire. They warn that it is a pause, not a resolution, and that any premature easing of pressure will leave Iranians facing the consequences alone, as they have before.
The Islamic Republic has never been one to adjust its behavior under diplomatic pressure. It is a revolutionary system built around permanent confrontation with the West – as decades of sanctions show – and the suppression of its own people. That does not change because talks broke down in Islamabad or because a temporary ceasefire holds for another week.
Stopping the bombs is a step, but as long as the regime itself is left in power, there will be no change vis-à-vis Iran, with or without a deal. The coming weeks will show whether either side has understood that. But for the moment, now that Israel and the US are taking a pause, the Iranian people themselves are returning to the frontlines of dealing with this regime, and they are under no illusions about what the Islamic Republic can do.