Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Situation Report. It’s been a big week in the world—there’s a new war in the Middle East that’s rapidly impacted the entire region and beyond.
On that note, we’ve got a lot of news for you today. Here’s what’s on tap: Trump’s shifting goals in the Iran war, Kristi Noem’s ouster as Homeland Security chief, and a new U.S. military operation in the Western Hemisphere.
The Iran war is less than a week old, but the Trump administration’s stated objectives in the fight have shifted repeatedly—as have its justifications for launching the conflict (read more on the latter from John here).
In many ways, the administration’s messaging on the war, nicknamed Operation Epic Fury, was muddled before it even began. U.S. President Donald Trump initially threatened strikes on Iran in January over the regime’s bloody crackdown on anti-government protests, but then he started warning Tehran that an attack could come if it didn’t reach an agreement with Washington on the Iranian nuclear program.
Since the United States and Israel began dropping bombs on Saturday, Trump and his advisors have added objectives beyond preventing Iran from building a nuclear bomb. In the process, they’ve often contradicted one another on what the United States is trying to accomplish. Unsurprisingly, a recent CBS News poll suggests that Americans are confused about the war’s aims, with a majority (62 percent) stating that the administration has not yet explained its goals clearly.
Regime change? The Trump administration has fluctuated on whether one of the goals is to bring down the Iranian regime. The war has already seen a number of top Iranian leaders killed, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran is now in the process of selecting a new leader, and Trump has signaled that he expects to have a say. He’s also expressed support for a popular uprising and for opposition groups to take the fight to the regime.
“To the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand,” Trump said in a video announcing the war on Saturday. “When we are finished, take over your government.”
But in a press briefing on Monday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth insisted that this is “not a so-called regime change war.” Yet Trump continues to make statements that undermine this. On Thursday, the president told Reuters that the United States must be “involved in the process of choosing the person who is going to lead Iran into the future.” Trump also said that he would be “all for it” if Iranian Kurdish militias were to take the fight to the regime. Asked by Reuters if the United States would provide or had offered such forces with air cover, Trump said, “I can’t tell you that,” but he added that the objective for the Kurds would be “to win.”
It’s an indeterminate approach to regime change, with the president apparently open to a range of outcomes—as long as they are favorable to what he perceives as U.S. interests.
Fluid goals, contradictory assessments. Trump has zeroed in on preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon as one of the primary goals of the war. But his continued and exaggerated assertion that the United States obliterated the Iranian nuclear program with strikes last June weakens his contention that the country posed an imminent nuclear threat.
Trump on Wednesday said Iran was just two weeks from having a nuclear weapon. The day prior, however, Rafael Grossi, the head of the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog, said, “There has been no evidence of Iran building a nuclear bomb.”
Meanwhile, the administration has also said the objectives include destroying Iran’s navy and eliminating ballistic missile and drone capabilities. The latter could be difficult to achieve for a number of reasons, including concerns over dwindling U.S. munitions (which Trump denies is a problem) and the fact that some of Iran’s arsenal is believed to be underground. Actually getting the job done could therefore necessitate ground forces, which is also the case regarding eliminating Iran’s nuclear program. Notably, Trump has not ruled out troops on the ground.
The administration has also offered conflicting assessments of progress on these goals. For example, both Trump and Hegseth have claimed that Iran’s navy is destroyed. “They have no navy,” Trump told Reuters on Thursday. But Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine on Wednesday said that the United States “will continue to strike infrastructure and naval capability” over the next 24 to 48 hours, suggesting that the effort to destroy the navy was ongoing. The Pentagon and U.S. Central Command did not respond to requests for comment on these contradictory statements.
Caine has also said that a goal of the war is to “dismantle Iran’s ability to project power outside of its borders both today and in the future.” This is an extremely broad and ill-defined objective that could be impossible to achieve, particularly if they’re hoping to eliminate all of Iran’s proxy groups in the region.
The Defense Department has named all six service members believed to have been killed in a drone attack on a U.S. operations center in Kuwait on Sunday, releasing the last two names on Wednesday in addition to the four it had released earlier.
They are Chief Warrant Officer 3 Robert M. Marzan (pending official identification), Maj. Jeffrey R. O’Brien, Capt. Cody A. Khork, Sgt. 1st Class Noah L. Tietjens, Sgt. 1st Class Nicole M. Amor, and Sgt. Declan J. Coady.
U.S. Central Command has also asked more military intelligence officers to support operations against Iran and is asking the Pentagon to send them to its Tampa, Florida, headquarters for at least 100 days but possibly until September, Politico reported.
Meanwhile on the domestic front, Trump abruptly announced on Thursday that he was replacing Kristi Noem as secretary of the Department of Homeland Security with Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullin, with the latter set to take over the role at the end of this month. Noem “will be moving to be Special Envoy for The Shield of the Americas, our new Security Initiative in the Western Hemisphere we are announcing on Saturday in Doral, Florida,” Trump added in his post on Truth Social. (It is not clear how the switch will actually take place in practice, given that Mullin will need to be confirmed by the Senate, after which his own Senate seat would become vacant.)
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
Iran war expands. The conflict in Iran kick-started by Saturday’s joint U.S.-Israel attack expanded beyond the territory and assets of those three countries from Day 1—with Arab Gulf countries Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates facing a barrage of Iranian missiles and drones—but has since expanded even further.
A U.S. submarine on Tuesday attacked and sank an Iranian ship off the coast of Sri Lanka “that thought it was safe in international waters,” Hegseth announced in a press briefing. The ship, a navy frigate that was returning from an international naval exercise hosted by India, was carrying almost 130 sailors, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X, calling the attack an “atrocity.” At least 87 people were reportedly killed in the attack and 32 others were rescued, according to Sri Lankan authorities.
Iran, meanwhile, carried out drone attacks against the Azerbaijan-controlled territory of Nakhchivan on Thursday, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry said in a statement, damaging the local airport and injuring two civilians.
NATO air defenses in the Mediterranean Sea also shot down an Iranian missile launched at Turkey, the Turkish Defense Ministry said in a statement, raising questions about whether the trans-Atlantic alliance will get involved in the war (NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte indicated on Thursday that it will not, at least as of now). The Iranian missile was reportedly bound for a military base that hosted the U.S. Air Force in Turkey. “We remind that our right to respond to any hostile act against our country remains reserved,” the Turkish Defense Ministry said. Iran has denied responsibility for both the Azerbaijan and Turkey strikes.
Ecuador operation. Even as it continues to fight a rapidly expanding war with Iran, the U.S. military launched a joint operation with the Ecuadorian military against alleged “narco-terrorists” in the South American country. That’s according to an announcement from U.S. Southern Command on Tuesday that was accompanied by a 30-second video of troops getting into military helicopters. “We commend the men and women of the Ecuadorian armed forces for their unwavering commitment to this fight, demonstrating courage and resolve through continued actions against narco-terrorists in their country,” Marine Gen. Francis L. Donovan, commander of U.S. Southern Command, said in a statement. The Pentagon has not shared additional information about the operation, including the role of U.S. troops.
Nepali security personnel carry sealed ballot boxes to be transported to a central counting station after polling closed in the country’s general election in Bitramod, Nepal, on March 5. Rebecca Conway/Getty Images
