Taiwan Bet Too Big on Washington

After U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing in mid-May to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, there was very little of substance in the outcome—except on Taiwan. Trump made ominous comments that were strikingly different from past rhetoric and that may have serious ramifications for the island’s future. For Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), this should be a huge wake-up call.

After the Trump-Xi meeting, the U.S. president said in an interview with Fox News that he did not want Taiwan declaring independence because Taiwanese leaders thought the United States would back them. When asked about weapons sales to Taiwan, including a recent $14 billion arms package, Trump described this as a “very good negotiating chip.” Previously in Beijing, Trump had also said he would talk to China about U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, which would be the first time a U.S. president has done so since Ronald Reagan. One of the “Six Assurances” that the United States made to Taiwan in 1982 was that it would not discuss arms sales to Taiwan with China.

Afterward, Trump said he would talk to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, though he has since pulled back on this. If it did ever happen, it would be the first time that a sitting U.S. president has talked to the leader of Taiwan since the United States ended formal relations with Taiwan in 1979, something that would certainly upset Beijing. More concretely, however, acting U.S. Navy Secretary Hung Cao said on May 21 that the $14 billion arms sale would be halted temporarily due to materiel shortages related to the ongoing war with Iran. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed this halt before a Senate committee on June 2, claiming that the arms sale was “under review.”

Taiwan’s DPP government should be very concerned about what all this means, given that it has staked the island’s future on U.S. support while breaking off communication with China. Trump did not make a single comment indicating support for Taiwan, even symbolic. In the past, he has made similar comments casting doubt on defending Taiwan and allegedly citing how large China was.

Since President Tsai Ing-wen, also of the DPP, took power in 2016, there have been no direct interactions with China due to the party’s refusal to agree to the so-called 1992 Consensus. This is an unofficial agreement made between the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), when it was in power, and China in the 1990s that both Taiwan and China belonged to the same country.

The DPP has long had a pro-independence stance, under which Taiwan would shed the “Republic of China” name and constitution to be its own state. While both Tsai and Lai have steered away from this when in power, they have overseen changes in the island’s status that push Taiwan heavily toward the United States, such as hosting high-level U.S. officials and the reported posting of at least 500 U.S. military trainers in Taiwan. Meanwhile, the lack of direct interactions with China means that areas such as cross-strait tourism, flights, and economic trade have decreased substantially.

Taiwan has also been unable to attend the World Health Organization’s annual assembly since 2017, in contrast to being able to participate from 2009 to 2016, when the KMT’s Ma Ying-jeou was in power. In contrast, the KMT maintains ties with China, with its chairwoman, Cheng Li-wun, having made a high-profile visit to China in April, during which she met with Xi in Beijing.

The DPP has tried to play down Trump’s recent remarks, claiming that it would maintain the status quo, though Lai also put out a message that Taiwan was “sovereign and independent.” The DPP has also claimed that U.S. support is still reliable, referring to comments from Rubio, a long-term supporter of Taiwan whom Taiwanese officials have looked to. Regardless of what Taipei claims, it needs to deal with the very real possibility that U.S. support for Taiwan is being reduced or withdrawn.

After years of debating U.S. support (something which I’ve written about for several years), it is becoming more and more clear that it is nowhere near a certain prospect. The Taiwanese public’s trust in the United States has gone down significantly in the past two years. The strategic failures of the U.S. war against Iran, and Iran’s ability to maintain the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have inspired little trust in the U.S. ability to confront China militarily. Meanwhile, a recent poll in Taiwan showed that more than 22 percent of respondents would support “peaceful unification” with China, much higher than previous figures, which were usually around 15 percent.

Whether the DPP can adopt a more pragmatic stance is crucial to Taiwan’s future. Even if this requires backing down on its long-term refusal to acknowledge the 1992 Consensus and distancing itself from its pro-independence stance, the DPP leadership should realize that Taiwan’s future is at stake here. In a social media post on May 17, Lai said Taiwan was its own entity and not something to be “traded away.” In this, he is right—Taiwan’s fate should not be decided between the United States and China, which is why Lai and his party should be doing whatever they can to be able to speak to China and decide Taiwan’s fate on more favorable terms.