The contraction of the Syrian state’s 2025 general budget surplus from half a billion dollars to 10% of that figure, about $46 million, revealed inconsistencies in Syrian financial data and raised questions about the accuracy of initial estimates and how they were announced. It remains unclear where the Syrian Ministry of Finance spent $454 million during the final four months of 2025.
Syrian Finance Minister Mohammed Yisr Barnieh justified the decline at the time by saying the surplus had remained high until the end of the third quarter, but shrank during the fourth quarter because of “the expansion of some public spending items and the payment of overdue obligations.” He did not specify what those obligations were, but told Enab Baladi at the time that the data had “changed significantly” and needed continuous updating.
Experts Read the 2025 Surplus and 2026 Budget
Several experts told Enab Baladi that an accounting surplus does not necessarily mean a real economic improvement if it resulted from fiscal austerity or the postponement of spending projects, rather than expanded production and investment or a broader tax base.
The International Monetary Fund even noted that the surplus was achieved mainly through spending control and the Finance Ministry’s refusal to seek financing from the Central Bank, not through a broad economic boom.
According to official data, state revenues in 2025 reached about $3.493 billion, compared with public spending of $3.447 billion. This produced a limited surplus representing only 0.15% of gross domestic product, which stood at $30.6 billion, compared with a deficit of 2.7% in 2024.
Customs duties made up about 39% of revenues, while salaries and wages accounted for 41% of spending. This reflects the continued dependence of public finances on traditional resources and current spending more than long-term productive investment, according to what Syrian Finance Minister Mohammed Yisr Barnieh published on his Facebook page.
As for 2026 indicators, they point to a major fiscal expansion. Public spending in the budget is estimated at $10.516 billion, more than three times 2025 spending, with a declared focus on social and investment spending, reconstruction projects, and poverty reduction.
In return, the Finance Ministry expects revenues of about $8.716 billion, with oil and gas revenues making up about 28% of the total. This means the return of an estimated deficit of about $1.8 billion, placing the government before a difficult test between maintaining fiscal discipline and financing growing development needs in the postwar phase.
The Mystery of the Sharp Surplus Decline
Official financial data indicate that the surplus was not stable, but declined sharply in the final quarter:
Economic and financial expert Zakwan Kreit told Enab Baladi, citing unspecified Finance Ministry sources, that the sharp decline had several causes:
However, the same expert considered the 2025 budget a fundamental turning point in the history of modern Syrian public finances, as it recorded a fiscal surplus for the first time since 1990, albeit a small one, ending decades of structural deficit that worsened during the years of war.
He presented an in-depth economic analysis of revenue and expenditure items, the surplus phenomenon, and the dramatic changes in the final quarter of that year, noting that total public spending in the 2025 budget reached about $3.447 billion, an increase of 45.7% compared with the former regime’s 2024 budget.
Allocating 41% of the same budget to salaries and wages, the largest bloc, according to Dr. Kreit, reflects the government’s orientation toward supporting the purchasing power of public sector workers despite inflationary pressures.
Meanwhile, allocating 59% of investment and social spending to commodity subsidies and development projects represented an increased orientation toward infrastructure investment.
The economist said public revenues witnessed a qualitative leap to $3.493 billion, an exceptional increase of 120.2% compared with 2024. He attributed this growth to:
The 2025 Surplus and the 2026 Budget Challenge
Economic expert Kreit believes that despite the achieved surplus, it remains a “fragile surplus” because of its small share of GDP. The challenges are clear in the 2026 budget, where spending is expected to jump to $10.5 billion, which could return the budget to the square of financing deficits if it is not matched by similar growth in productive revenues.
Economic and financial expert Dr. Mohammad Taysir al-Faqih told Enab Baladi that one of the most prominent positive indicators in the current financial phase is that the government stopped resorting to deficit financing through the Central Bank of Syria, after the Finance Ministry repaid all advances the government had obtained since the fall of the regime through March.
Mohammad Taysir al-Faqih said this step carries an important indication in terms of fiscal discipline, because it ends one of the tools that previously contributed most to pressure on the local currency and increased monetary imbalances.
According to Dr. al-Faqih, the impact of refraining from direct borrowing from the Central Bank is not limited to the accounting side. It also directly affects exchange rate stability and reduces inflationary pressures, especially in an economy suffering from monetary fragility and declining trust. Maintaining a clear distance between fiscal and monetary policies also gives the Central Bank wider room to manage its tools away from government pressure linked to deficit financing.
From an Austerity Surplus to a Growth Surplus
Economic expert Kreit believes there is a set of recommendations that both the Syrian Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Syria must work on, including:
Financial expert al-Faqih added that the discussion of Central Bank independence should not be reduced only to the issue of halting government borrowing, but requires a broader framework that includes:
In al-Faqih’s view, these elements form the real basis for stabilizing the Syrian pound and restoring the confidence of investors and economic actors in the local market.
He concluded that the recent visit by International Monetary Fund experts to Damascus carried special importance because it opened direct discussions with both the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Syria on the state of public finances, mechanisms for managing spending, and reforming monetary policy.
He believes these consultations represent a necessary beginning for rebuilding trust in Syria’s economic institutions and preparing the ground for the deeper reforms needed in the coming phase.
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