In 2025, Jack Roush wrote, “Russia’s War in Ukraine Has Brought Iran and Belarus Closer Together,” where he argued that a closer security partnership between Belarus and Iran could have devastating consequences for Ukraine. Now that Iran is involved in a war with the United States and Israel, we asked Jack to revisit his arguments.Image: khamenei.ir via Wikimedia CommonsIn your 2025 article, you argued that if the security partnership between Belarus and Iran deepens, it could provide a faster, more secure flow of critical drone technology to Russian forces in Ukraine. After another year of war in Ukraine, has this ultimately happened? If so, tell us more. If not, why? Since the article was published, Russia’s use of Iranian-designed drones in its war against Ukraine has intensified, and Belarus’s involvement in this process has gradually gained significance. Last year, Belarus and Russia announced plans to open a substantial joint-production facility in the near future, reportedly capable of manufacturing up to 100,000 drones annually. In the meantime, Belarus has ramped up its production of key components for Russia’s missiles, drones, and electronic warfare systems. Russia has also expanded its own domestic drone manufacturing, so this arrangement with Belarus appears designed to create supply-chain redundancies and potentially shield production from Ukrainian strikes, as I anticipated.While this supports my argument directionally, the Islamic Republic’s involvement has proven less significant than expected. Russia appears to have stepped into Iran’s role of providing the technical expertise necessary to support drone production in Belarus. Sidelining Tehran in this way aligns with Moscow’s broader effort to maintain strategic autonomy and ensure it remains the Lukashenko regime’s primary benefactor. Additionally, last year’s 12-Day War and the present conflict have likely affirmed Russia’s aim of minimizing reliance on Iran more broadly. That’s not to say that the emerging dynamic between
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