Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- Russia’s spring-summer 2026 offensive has failed to achieve operationally significant gains thus far, and Russian forces’ rate of advance in June 2026 is a fraction of the rate of advance that Russian forces achieved in June 2025.
- Russian forces have also experienced heavy casualties and equipment losses to make these relatively small gains.
- Ukraine continued to intensify its intermediate- and long-range strike campaigns in June 2026, which are having cascading effects on Russian logistics and battlefield operations as well as causing gasoline shortages and economic frictions across Russia and occupied Ukraine.
- Russian authorities announced that Russia will temporarily close seven railway border crossings with Finland, Latvia, and Estonia starting July 1 for unspecified reasons.
- Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaigns against Russian oil and gas infrastructure and military assets on the night of June 30 to July 1. Russian forces launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile, one Kh-59 guided missile, and 151 drones against Ukraine overnight.
- Ukrainian forces advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
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