Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- Russian forces recently made tactical gains in Kostyantynivka – Russia’s assessed main effort for the Spring-Summer 2026 offensive.
- Russian forces began their campaign for Kostyantynivka in Summer 2025 after completing the seizures of Chasiv Yar and Toretsk – settlements northeast and southeast of Kostyantynivka, respectively.
- Ukrainian forces conducted a FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile strike overnight on June 9 and 10 against a Russian military plant that produces key components for Shahed drones and missiles.
- Russian forces will likely make tactical gains in Kostyantynivka in Summer 2026 but are unlikely to make operational gains against the Fortress Belt writ large.
- Ukrainian forces also continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure on the night of June 9 to June 10.
- The Kremlin’s volunteer recruitment campaign continues to show signs of strain under the pressure of high battlefield losses and rising economic costs.
- The Kremlin continues attempts to nationalize private assets of Russian citizens, likely to support state revenues and the costly war effort in Ukraine.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and in the western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
- Russian forces launched 207 drones against Ukraine overnight.
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