Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranA month after negotiators met for historic high-level talks in Pakistan, Washington and Tehran seem closer to a breakdown of the ceasefire that U.S. President Donald Trump announced on April 7 than a breakthrough. In addition to its blockade of Iranian shipping, the United States has been stepping up sanctions against Iran as part of “Economic Fury,” announcing several tranches of designations in recent days targeting its oil trade and banking networks. The toll on Iran’s sputtering economy is rising — by the government’s own estimates, food prices are up nearly 150 percent year on year, and according to one official, upward of one million jobs have been lost due to the war. But that has yet to shift the regime’s calculus on conceding to U.S. demands: Its latest proposal reportedly seeks to punt on negotiations regarding its fissile stockpiles or future uranium enrichment pending a mutual easing of dueling blockades over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump dismissed the proposal as “garbage.” Iranian media reported that Iran made maximalist demands, including war reparations, lifting of sanctions, and recognition of Iranian authority over the strait. The deadlock — alongside brainstorming around the name of a revived military campaign — raises the risk that major hostilities will resume.Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Rafael Peralta enforces a maritime blockade against an Iranian-flagged vessel in the Arabian Sea on April 24. Image: NAVCENT Public Affairs via Wikimedia CommonsChinaOn May 13, Trump arrived in China for a summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Several corporate executives traveled with Trump, highlighting the importance of trade and business links between the two countries. Trump and Xi are also likely to discuss AI, Taiwan, and the closure of
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