Ukraine exported 9.7 million tons of wheat during the first nine months of the 2025/26 marketing year, accounting for 55% of its projected export target. According to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB), this represents a 25% decline compared to the same period last year.
The reason for the slowdown is a record harvest in the European Union – wheat production in the EU rose by 18% in the 2025/26 season. This increase in self-sufficiency sharply reduced demand for Ukrainian grain in traditional European markets, particularly in Spain and Italy, prompting domestic traders to shift their focus to African countries.
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According to UCAB’s press release, there are three potential scenarios for the remainder of the season. If export rates remain at 600,000 tons per month, Ukraine faces record carryover stocks of 7 million tons. This surplus could crash domestic prices and lead to a critical shortage of elevator space for the July 2026 harvest.
Alternatively, rising global wheat prices could offset the burden of high stocks. Forward contracts are already showing slight growth, and upcoming US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports in May 2026 will clarify whether rising fuel and fertilizer costs, driven by the war in the Middle East, will push global prices higher.
A third scenario from UCAB involves increasing monthly shipments to 2.4 million tons. While Ukraine previously exported over 6 million tons of grain per month during the war, the question of whether this is physically possible now remains uncertain, given recent attacks on port infrastructure and subdued global demand.
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