Egypt under President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has continued over the past year, and especially in recent days, to play a troubling double game in its relationship with Israel.
Despite the 1979 peace treaty, Cairo has repeatedly acted against Israeli interests. It has taken positions that were perceived in Israel and the Gulf as overly soft toward Iran, sharply opposed Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, and attempted to insert itself into negotiations between Israel and Lebanon. Now, it has staged provocative military exercises near Israel’s border.
These moves are unfolding as Egypt faces severe economic pressure. The country is struggling with heavy debt, external financing needs, and the economic fallout from regional instability. Attacks from Yemen, the war with Iran, and tensions in the Red Sea have harmed shipping traffic and Suez Canal revenues, dealing Cairo another serious blow.
When the war involving the US, Israel, and Iran erupted, Egypt’s initial response was widely viewed as sympathetic toward Tehran. The Egyptian Foreign Ministry expressed “deep concern” over the military escalation, while al-Sisi avoided condemning Iran by name. That approach angered Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, which expected more from Egypt than a cautious statement. They expected assistance, or at least Egyptian air patrols over the Gulf to help deter Iran. That did not happen.
The Gulf states are disappointed in Egypt, and they have good reason.
Egypt has voiced concern over the direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel
Let us return to Egypt’s relationship with Israel. A few days ago, al-Sisi called Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and proposed that Lebanon hold indirect negotiations with Israel under Egyptian mediation in Sharm el-Sheikh rather than under US auspices. Egypt has voiced concern over the direct negotiations taking place between Lebanon and Israel.
Egypt was the first Arab country to normalize relations with Israel. Cairo seems to believe that this gives it ownership over Israel’s peace process, or over anyone else seeking peace with Israel. Fortunately, Aoun rejected the proposal.
In December 2025, when Israel officially recognized Somaliland as a sovereign state, becoming the first country in the world to do so, Cairo reacted harshly. Egypt’s Foreign Ministry called the move a flagrant violation of international law and an infringement on Somalia’s sovereignty. Al-Sisi coordinated with Turkey, Djibouti, and Somalia, and helped lead a joint statement by Arab and Islamic countries against the recognition.
Egypt viewed Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as a direct strategic threat to its national security because it could allow Israel to gain a foothold in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, an area that is critical to Egypt’s trade routes.
The most provocative move is taking place now. The Egyptian military has begun large-scale live-fire exercises very close to the Israeli border, reportedly around 100 meters from the fence. The drills were technically approved by the IDF, but they have sparked anger among residents of the Gaza border area and southern Israel.
The exercises include live fire across wide areas, and residents have reported serious security concerns. Local security officials warned that such activity could create dangerous norms. Some residents even compared the situation to warning signs that preceded the October 7 massacre.
These exercises come amid an accelerated Egyptian military buildup in Sinai, including the deployment of large forces, tanks, and air defense systems. Israel has increasingly viewed some of these moves as a gradual erosion of the understandings that underpin the Camp David framework.
The obvious question is this: If the Sinai Peninsula covers more than 60,000 sq.km., why did Egypt choose to conduct drills right next to Israel’s border?
Egypt’s economic pressure
Egypt’s external debt stands at roughly $160 billion to $170 billion, with heavy annual debt-service obligations. External financing needs for 2026 are estimated at tens of billions of dollars. Debt service consumes a large share of government spending, leaving far less room for health, education, and infrastructure.
The Egyptian pound has also fallen sharply in recent years. Egypt remains dependent on Gulf assistance, asset sales, and International Monetary Fund programs. Al-Sisi is therefore moving between competing interests. He needs Gulf money, while also trying to preserve ties with Iran and other regional players.
Egypt is arming itself at a scale that raises questions about its priorities. Had Cairo spent less on weapons over the previous decade, it might have been in a less severe economic position today.
Egypt has not collapsed as Sri Lanka or Lebanon has, but it is walking a narrow path. Egyptian economists have warned that without timely payments and external support, the country could face a serious financial crisis. A Lebanese-style scenario, in which banks cannot return depositors’ savings, can no longer be dismissed as fantasy.
So what is Egypt doing? It is behaving like a regional bully. It is applying pressure, creating anxiety, and trying to force others to help it reach an economic and political off-ramp.
For weeks, Egypt has tried to pressure Gulf states, with limited success. Al-Sisi’s lightning visit to Saudi Arabia and his meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the airport rather than at a palace pointed to serious disagreements. Egyptian media are under pressure, and the message coming from Cairo is clear: Egypt needs a miracle to recover and avoid collapse.
The Egyptian military drill now taking place near Israel’s border is part of this pressure campaign. It is an attempt to worry Israel and force it to act on Egypt’s behalf. Cairo appears to believe that Israel can help rescue it, either by persuading the US or by pressuring Gulf states to transfer grants or loans to Egypt.
Israel must not give in to this behavior. It should file a formal protest with the US, the mediator and guarantor of the peace framework, over Egypt’s dangerous conduct near the border and the erosion of the security understandings that have preserved peace for decades.