Hezbollah remains a major threat to Israel. As military actions continue, should Israel consider peace talks with Lebanon, or is further force the only solution?
Despite hopes – fueled in part by government bravado – that last year’s campaign against Hezbollah, including the remarkable pager and beeper attack, would have marginalized the terrorist group, the events of the last two weeks have offered a different scenario.
Hezbollah is alive, if not well, and still capable of making Israeli lives in the North a living hell.
According to the IDF, the Iran-backed terrorist group has fired an average of about 100 projectiles toward Israel since entering the war. Last Wednesday, that number spiked to 200.
For almost the past two weeks, residents of the North have either been living in their safe room or going there repeatedly. Unlike the rest of the country targeted by Iran, Israelis in the North aren’t afforded the five- or 10-minute alert before an air-raid siren warns of incoming fire. They only get 90 seconds, which, as the rest of the country has learned, is stressful, dangerous, and unsustainable for any prolonged length of time.
Hezbollah has more than 1,000 long-range missiles to continue hammering Israel’s home front, in addition to potentially tens of thousands of shorter-range missiles, The Jerusalem Post’s Yonah Jeremy Bob reported last week.
Without a resolution, Hezbollah will continue to plague Israel
Regardless of how the current war with Iran plays out, if the Hezbollah threat to Israel is not resolved, it will continue to plague the residents of the North and threaten Israel’s security.
The IDF is preparing a large-scale invasion of southern Lebanon to dismantle Hezbollah’s assets south of the Litani River, Axios reported on Friday, citing Israeli and US officials.
According to the report, which has not been confirmed or denied, Israeli officials are planning an operation in which the military would seize the entire area south of the Litani River and dismantle Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, which would be the largest operation performed in Lebanon since the Second Lebanon War in 2006.
Furthermore, Lebanon and its president, Joseph Aoun, have accepted a French proposal as a basis for direct peace talks with Israel that aims to end the current war, secure an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, and create a path toward unprecedented Lebanese recognition of Israel, Axios also reported.
French President Emmanuel Macron, who has been critical of the Israel-US offensive against Iran and Hezbollah, offered on Saturday to host ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Lebanon in Paris.
“Everything must be done to prevent Lebanon from descending into chaos,” he wrote on X/Twitter. “Hezbollah must immediately halt its escalating conflict. Israel must abandon its large-scale offensive and cease its massive airstrikes.”
'Israel must seize this opportunity'
“Israel must seize this opportunity” for a ceasefire and find a solution that would allow the Lebanese government to uphold its “commitments to Lebanon’s sovereignty,” Macron wrote.
Despite the dramatic development, Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar on Sunday said the government was not planning to hold direct talks with Lebanon in the coming days. Israel reportedly deems the offer too little, too late, and it views the Lebanese government as too impotent to act on its commitment to disarm Hezbollah.
There’s certainly evidence to back that up. Lebanon is held hostage by Hezbollah. Since June, the Lebanese government has had ample time to rein in the terrorist group. Despite good intentions – and the knowledge that continued Hezbollah aggression against Israel would throw Lebanon into another conflict and further decimate its anemic economy – it has been unable to do so.
The choices facing Israel are not good. We’ve witnessed over the past two weeks that Hezbollah is still a formidable opponent and has no qualms about targeting civilians and attempting to cause as much carnage as possible. At the same time, if the IDF alone is tasked with removing the threat, it will likely be a long endeavor that results in high Israeli casualties.
Israel, of course, is responsible for its own security. But as unlikely as its chances of success are, if there’s a glimmer of hope that French-sponsored talks between Lebanon and Israel could bear fruit – and that together, an alliance could rein in Hezbollah for good and result in peace between the neighboring countries – it’s incumbent upon Jerusalem to at least consider the French and Lebanese initiative.
The bottom line is that Hezbollah must be defanged. If this can be done without Israel facing a long occupation in Lebanon and putting IDF lives at risk, that option must be explored before being rejected.
