Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranAs the war with Iran extends into a second month, the White House is publicly bullish on both its military achievements and diplomatic prospects. The former are considerable, though not definitive. While the Iranian regime’s instruments of hard power have been degraded, it remains capable of striking Israel and Gulf allies, and its threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are putting a significant strain on the global economy. Meanwhile, there seems little to suggest that ongoing negotiations can wield an immediate off-ramp to the conflict. There is a chasm between Washington and Tehran’s reported positions, and a ceasefire that freezes hostilities seems, for now, unlikely to satisfy either. In a speech on April 1, U.S. President Donald Trump promised to “hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks.”Iran’s chokehold on the waterway and the fate of nearly half a ton of highly enriched uranium are no small issues to leave unresolved for the United States and Israel, while the Iranians are pressing their perceived advantage to compel not just a cessation of hostilities, but assurances against their resumption.A satellite image of the Strait of Hormuz taken in 2020. Image: MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC via Wikimedia CommonsRussiaRussia emerged as a short-term beneficiary of the war with Iran and the subsequent spike in oil prices. Western intelligence believes that Moscow is expanding intelligence-sharing and other forms of cooperation with Iran, and media reports suggest that Russia is close to supplying — or may already have begun limited deliveries of — drones to Iran.Before the war, Russia’s oil revenues had been falling, but March reversed that trend. The boost was reinforced by a temporary U.S. waiver allowing sanctioned
Members-Only Content
This article is reserved for War on the Rocks members. Join our community to unlock exclusive insights and analysis.
