Ukraine Inflation Accelerates to 8.6% as Logistics Costs Keep Rising
Ukraine inflation rose to 8.6% in April from 7.9% in March, extending recent price pressures driven by fuel and transport. Fuel prices jumped 36.1% year-on-year, while transport services accelerated to 20.1%, according to the State Statistics Service.
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Consumer inflation in Ukraine accelerated to 8.6% year-over-year in April from 7.9% in March, extending a recent upward trend driven by higher fuel and transport, according to a report published by the State Statistics Service on Thursday.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile components, accelerated to 7.6% year-over-year from 7.1% a month earlier, the statistics agency wrote.
Monthly inflation stood at 1.4% in April, compared with 1.7% in March, while core monthly inflation stood at 0.9% in April compared to 1.5% a month earlier, according to the report.
This indicates that Ukraine has passed the most acute spike of the fuel price shock caused by the war in the Middle East and a spike in oil prices to an average of $100 per barrel. Although price pressure remains persistent, rising fuel and logistics costs continue to feed into consumer prices across the economy.
Inflation is set to accelerate in the second quarter of 2026, reaching 9.4% at the end of the year, according to the forecast from Ukraine’s central bank, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), published in the April 2026 Inflation report. The increase in energy prices caused a direct price spike and second-round effects. Inflation also increased due to a weakening of the hryvnia’s exchange rate, driven by market factors in previous periods – the hryvnia weakened from Hr. 42 per dollar to Hr. 44. The NBU also noted continued wage growth of Ukrainians.
Kyiv said cash and valuables taken in March have now been fully returned to Ukraine.
How did logistics prices change from March?
Transport prices accelerated to 19.1% year-on-year, while the increase on the previous month was 4.7%. This change is shaped by an average figure from several categories estimated by the State Statistics Service:
Fuel and lubricant prices surged 36.1% year-on-year after rising 7.9% a month earlier
Transport services stood at 20.1% year-on-year and 6.2% compared to March 2026.
Road passenger transport prices rose more sharply, climbing 20.8% year-on-year and 6.5% monthly, while railway fares increased 14.3% year-on-year and 4.4% compared to the previous month.
“Transport prices rose mainly due to an increase in the cost of fuel and lubricants, and increases in road and rail passenger fares respectively,” the State Statistics Service reported.
In its April Inflation Report, the NBU analyzed the impact of war in the Middle East on Ukraine’s economy – apart from the price increase, Ukraine’s economic growth became restrained, and the trade deficit widened.
“The NBU’s baseline forecast scenario anticipates a gradual easing of tensions in the Middle East starting in late Q2 and a decline in the price of Brent crude oil to $80 per barrel by the end of 2026. The alternative scenario assumes that the war would last longer and that oil prices would be no lower than $100 per barrel until the end of 2026,” the Inflation Report writes, echoing figures in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) April 2026 World Economic Outlook.
Inflation trends for food and other non-food categories
Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose 9.6% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month in April. Within this category, the sharpest monthly increases were recorded for bread and bread products, up 5.2%, followed by sugar at 3.6% and sunflower oil at 2.7%.
Some relief came from falling egg and dairy prices. Eggs fell 3.4% in April – though they remain 19% more expensive than a year ago – while butter dropped 1.5% monthly and slipped 1.1% year-on-year. Although sugar rose in April, it is still 10.7% cheaper than a year earlier, as is butter in annual terms.
Alcohol and tobacco prices rose 1.2% in April. “Prices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco products rose, driven by a 1.8% increase in tobacco product prices,” the report wrote.
Clothing and footwear edged up 0.8% for the month but remain 5.4% cheaper than a year ago – a dynamic that has persisted since the second half of 2025.
Miscellaneous goods and services fell 2.4% in April – the category that also includes salaries of Ukrainians – though prices in the segment remain 10.1% higher than a year ago.
Utilities held largely flat, with the housing, water, energy and fuel category rising just 0.2% in April, as electricity, gas, hot water and heating prices saw no change due to the fixed energy prices for households.
Restaurant and hotel prices rose 1.8% monthly and 13.9% annually. Telecommunications costs climbed 0.5% in April and 15.7% year-over-year.
Olena Hrazhdan is the Business Reporter at Kyiv Post, covering Ukraine’s markets, business, and economic policy. While she reports broadly on economic issues, her core focus is banking, finance, monetary and fiscal policy. Olena previously wrote for leading Ukrainian business media and became a Fellow of the International Monetary Fund’s Journalism Fellowship in 2024.
