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AI Bubble Unlikely to Spark 2008-Scale Financial Crisis, NBU’s First Deputy Governor Says

Ukraine’s central bank says even a sharp correction in AI stocks would likely resemble the dot-com downturn rather than the global financial meltdown of 2008.

Kyiv Post

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८ मार्च, 2026

4 min read

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Even if the rapid rise of artificial intelligence companies turns out to be a market bubble, it is unlikely to trigger a global financial crisis comparable to 2008, National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) First Deputy Governor Sergiy Nikolaychuk said in an interview with Ekonomichna Pravda.

Nikolaychuk said it remains uncertain whether the surge in investment and valuations in the AI sector should be described as a bubble, noting that many investors view the technology as a major driver of long-term productivity growth.

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“It is difficult to say whether this is a ‘bubble’ and whether it will burst. Many people see artificial intelligence as a powerful driver of long-term productivity growth. This leads to such high valuations of companies that are engaged in artificial intelligence. To a large extent, those risks are already taken into account in the valuations of these companies,” Nikolaychuk said in the interview.

Even if the sector faces a significant correction – particularly in the United States, where many leading AI companies are based – the consequences for the global economy are likely to be limited.

“I do not expect this crisis to become as global as it was in 2008, even if the stock market in the United States undergoes a significant correction. But now the world is different and less vulnerable to shocks that may occur in the US economy and its financial sector,” Nikolaychuk said.

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The current situation is more similar to the dot-com crisis rather than 2008 crisis, he added. 

Global economy seen as more resilient to US shocks

According to Nikolaychuk, financial developments in the United States have had a weaker spillover effect on the global economy over the past decade than they did during earlier crises. He said many economies – including the European Union, China, and emerging markets – are now better prepared for potential financial disruptions.

Part of that resilience stems from institutional reforms carried out by central banks and improvements in macroeconomic governance across many countries. Ukraine, he added, has also become less vulnerable to external economic shocks compared with previous crises.

“To some extent, Ukraine is also an example of reduced vulnerability to external shocks compared with what we had in 2008 and 2014,” Nikolaychuk said.

He also noted that global financial dynamics have shifted compared with previous crises. During the 2008 financial crisis, problems in the US financial system triggered capital flows into US assets considered safe havens, strengthening the dollar and creating additional pressure for other economies, particularly developing countries.

Nikolaychuk said similar patterns have been less pronounced in recent years, even during major disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

He also pointed to the increasing fragmentation of the global economy, which makes it harder for a single financial shock to produce the same worldwide effects seen during the collapse of the US housing bubble in 2007-2008. 

Previously, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned in its October 2025 World Economic Outlook that the rapid rise of artificial intelligence stocks could resemble the “dotcom bubble” of the 1990s. The IMF was one of the first institutions to publicly voice this concern. 

IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said an abrupt repricing of tech stocks could occur if AI-driven productivity gains or earnings fail to meet expectations, potentially ending the current investment boom and posing broader risks to global macro-financial stability.